Insights
This week’s numbers
The US weekly oil statistics from the EIA, this year against the last five, updated with every release. It is a small sample of the data we work with: we collect, clean and curate our datasets ourselves, so the analysis built on them is reliable.
280 insights
- Alaska's crude comeback: More North Slope barrels, tougher Pacific competition? Alaska's production revival is gaining momentum, with output forecast to cross 500 kbd in 2027. The bigger market story is not the additional supply itself, but where these barrels will compete and at what price. As North Slope production ramps up and Asian exports increase, Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude faces growing competition from Middle Eastern and other Pacific Basin suppliers. XA's bias: Modestly bearish for ANS regional differentials, with limited direct impact on global Brent prices.
- Serbia's Pančevo refinery faces shutdown risk as JANAF Pipeline disruption threatens crude cupply Serbia's only operating refinery, Pančevo (96 kbd), faces potential shutdown risk following the 6 November disruption to the JANAF crude pipeline in Croatia that is the principal route of crude supply to refinery making the refinery highly vulnerable to prolonged pipeline disruptions. Refinery has requested access to government crude and diesel reserves. Alternative crude-supply options are limited, although domestic crude, inventories and strategic reserves could temporarily support operations. A prolonged shutdown could increase Serbian diesel and gasoline imports, potentially strengthening Southeast European product premiums and disrupting domestic petrochemical feedstock supply. Refining, Diesel, serbia
- Oil's 4+ million barrels per day surplus paradox for 2027: What EIA vs. IEA projections could be missing? The IEA and EIA are converging on a potentially massive global liquids surplus of more than 4 million barrels per day in 2027. Yet the market's physical realities and geopolitical incentives tell a different story. The forecasts assume a substantial recovery in Middle Eastern supply, even as demand growth weakens in emerging economies and alternative supplies expand across the Americas and Russia. The contradiction is striking: a surplus of this magnitude should force inventories higher, futures into contango or prices sharply lower. Yet price expectations remain elevated, and physical markets continue to face disruptions. Oil Macro
- XA comment on the FT note - Russian diesel exports double after Trump lifts sanctions, but US gets none The XA comment differentiates the loadings vs. arrivals and provides a contrary market view. Oct-26 loadings of Russian Diesel are indeed higher w.r.t Sep-26. The arrivals are not. Diesel
- Bulgaria's only refinery trips on power outage - Rapid recovery eases fuel-supply risks, but FCC restart remains critical An external power-system failure disrupted Bulgaria's largest refinery on November 9. Most processing units have since restarted, but catalytic cracking operations had not fully normalised as of November 10.
- Higher diesel flows, weakening cracks - what next? Is the sell off over done? Diesel markets are undergoing a sharp correction as geopolitical risk premiums unwind, global exports rise and refining margins retreat to 60-day lows. Yet the physical market tells a more complicated story. Winter backwardation remains significant, Singapore inventories have fallen to a nine-week low, and renewed attacks on Russian refineries threaten supply reliability. Higher US refinery yields and Asian exports offer near-term relief, but may not eliminate the underlying vulnerability. Has diesel been oversold, or is the market finally adjusting to improving fundamentals? XA sees a potential buying opportunity in the correction, with Chinese export flows, Russian refinery outages and the approaching US spring supply dip determining the next move. Diesel
- Iraq's oil rebound: Real recovery, hidden routes and the Red Sea escape plan Iraq's oil rebound is challenging the narrative of a prolonged Gulf supply disruption. October crude production reportedly recovered to 4.22 mbd, approaching pre-crisis levels, while southern loadings are signaling a potential return to—and possibly above—pre-war volumes. But higher loadings do not necessarily mean higher delivered exports. Hormuz transit risks, alternative trade routes and opaque movements remain critical uncertainties. XA's key call: Iraq's oil rebound may be more bearish for Gulf crude differentials than for Brent itself. Crude
- Ukraine continued strikes on Russian refineries - hampering US-Russia diesel deal? Ukraine continues to strike Russian refineries with resulting disruptions reportedly taking out 30 per cent of Russia's capacity since late October. Moscow and Washington entered a deal for the supply of Russian diesel to the latter. The initial agreement covered 3000,000 metric tons, followed by additional scheduled shipments. The deal had attracted adverse comments from all corners of the world. Earlier the US has also eased certain restrictions to permit these shipments.
- Brent below $90: Correction in price, not in crisis? Brent's 19.2% correction signals a retreat in geopolitical fear, not necessarily a recovery in physical oil supply. The market is unwinding the immediate Iran-escalation premium, helped by easing freight costs, Saudi export rerouting and expectations of emergency stock support. Yet Hormuz crossings and loadings remain volatile, inventories are tight, and the forward curves remain backwardated despite weakening. XA's contrarian call: The correction may be temporary, while the Gulf crisis could prove prolonged. We maintain a bullish bias for Brent to recover and sustain levels above $90/bbl through the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027. The key market signal is not the headlines, but whether physical flows recover sustainably. The bigger question: Is the market pricing the end of the crisis, while the physical data are pointing to its continuation?
- Ireland's only oil refinery on the block? Strategic asset or refining margin challenge? Irving Oil is exploring the potential sale of Whitegate, Ireland's only oil refinery, with no transaction confirmed. But what exactly would a buyer be acquiring: a profitable refining asset or a strategic gateway to Ireland's fuel market? The 75 kbd hydroskimming refinery benefits from an established domestic market, marine access and fuel distribution infrastructure. However, limited upgrading capacity constrains crude flexibility and diesel yield optimization. XA View: Whitegate's strategic value may lie more in securing Ireland's fuel market than in maximizing refining margins.
- Global LNG loadings are back to pre-war levels. But is global LNG supply security really back? US exports are filling the supply gap, while Qatar's LNG faces a widening disconnect between loadings, Hormuz crossings and actual deliveries. With winter demand building, China's buying appetite and US export growth could determine whether LNG prices spike or stabilize. The real question: Is LNG supply recovering, or is the market simply finding new ways to manage disruption? LNG
- Hormuz loadings and crossings on decline after an end Oct peak West of Hormuz weekly crude and products loadings are in a declining trajectory after a peak in end-Oct. There are more attacks being reported. What is crossing the Straight is even much below prior week in the latest 2-8 Nov data. Ship to Ship transfers are also in declining… Trade Flows
- Latest Saudi East-West pipeline attack need not be considered bullish? Attack on the pipeline in western Medina region and small fire is reported on Monday. The pipeline operations reported as unaffected. The loadings from Yanbu have been trending lower owing to earlier attacks. The loading in weeks ahead is also projected much lower. Mostly what… East-West Saudi Pipeline
- Getting more Ships on water ? Allowing purchase of U.S. sanctioned ships by major trading companies is likely to bring further pressure on freight rates. Freight
- Ukraine continues its drone compagin - Five Russian refineries struck in last one week Five Russian refineries ( ~ 1.3 mbd combined capacity) were reportedly struck or damaged by Ukarinian drones between October 30 and November 5. Ukraine resumed its drone compagin against Russian refineries & energy infrastructure after a brief pause lasting about 2 weeks. Key… Russia-Ukraine Energy War
- Oil falls for a fourth day on expectations for lower risk of Iran war escalation. Sell off is short lived. Oil prices fell for a fourth day on Thursday on expectations the losses US President Donald Trump's Republican Party suffered in Congressional elections this week may reduce the risk of further escalation of the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent futures LCOc1 fell 97 cents, or 1.03%… Prices
- India – addition of 650 kbd refining capacity. Impact in 2028 vs. 2027. India has multiple capacity expansions targeted for 2027 HPCL Rajasthan - Target to reach full utilization by year end/early 2027. IOCL Panipat - 200 kbd addition targeted by March 2027 IOCL Gujarat - 90 kbd addition targeted by March 2027 IOCL Barauni - 60 kbd addition targeted… Refining
- CVR Energy acquires Marathon’s two midwest refineries - any signal to markets? CVR Energy will acquire Marathon’s St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries, alongside marketing and midstream assets, for $4.2bn plus net working capital. Closing is expected by end-2026, subject to regulatory approvals. The acquisition adds 177 kbd (St. Paul Park 105 kbd and Mandan… US refining watch
- Valero acquires LyondellBasell’s idled Houston refinery - Reversing the trend? Valero has agreed to acquire LyondellBasell’s idle Houston refinery for US$320.5 million, with plans to restart 165 kb/d (~8.25 MMTPA) of light-sweet-crude processing capacity by end-2027 and potential future investment to add more complex units capable of processing heavy sour… US refining watch
- After diesel, Russia restricts petrochemicals exports! - so what? Russia has imposed a three-month ban on November 2 on exports of selected petrochemicals outside the Eurasian Economic Union, aimed at ensuring stable feedstock supplies for domestic industries. The restrictions cover coal- and petroleum-derived benzene, toluene, orthoxylene… Petrochemicals
- Ukraine resumes strikes on Russian refineries - adding to diesel volatility? Ukraine resumed long-range drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, reportedly striking the Kstovo refinery (Nizhny Novgorod) and another Rosneft-owned refinery in the Samara region, despite reports that US had urged Ukarine to halt such attacks. Ukrainian officials rejected… Russia-Ukraine Energy War
- Saudi Ras Tanura: refinery partially impaired after strikes, but crude exports continue Ras Tanura appears to be operating at reduced or disrupted refinery rates after the October 27–28 strike reports, while crude loading activity has continued and the affected cracker type remains unconfirmed. Key findings Satellite-imagery reporting indicated significant damage… Global Refinery Outages
- India BPCL approves greenfield refinery & petrochemicals complex - structural addition by 2030? BPCL’s board approved a wholly owned subsidiary on 23 October 2026 to develop the proposed greenfield refinery and petrochemical complex at Ramayapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, subject to government and regulatory approvals. The subsidiary will have initial authorised share capital of… India Refining
- IEA ‘ready to act again’ if necessary following oil stock release: Birol Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency speaks to CNBC’s Dan Murphy, saying the agency is ready to act again to support markets following its release of oil stocks, and is assessing and discussing the next “concrete steps” with member governments. Stocks
- Gulf’s worst oil shock will leave lasting scars, says IMF GCC GDP to contract by 4.8% in 2026 Qatar, Kuwait worst hit. Only Oman projected to grow at 4.1%. Macro
- Exxon shut down catalytic reformer unit at 275 KBD Joliet refinery - adding to PADD II gasoline tightness? ExxonMobil shut down ~50kbd catalytic reformer unit at its 275 kbd Joliet refinery on October 20 following an operational issue, with reduced stack activity & elevated flaring as reported by Wood Mac. ExxonMobil said it was working to resolve the operational issue without… US Oil Refining
- US assessing options to restart closed down refineries to ease domestic supplies - whats the likelihood? US energy secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. is reviewing whether closed refineries can be restarted to help increase domestic fuel supplies and address rising diesel prices. He mentioned that administration was engaging with every refinery closed within the past decade to… US Oil Refining
- China likely to continue exports - Argus China export quota - million tons 2022 -37, 2023- 41,2024-41,202025-40.5, 2026 - expected ~ 36.55 A new refinery is starting in recent days. Refined Products
- Phillips 66 Bayway refinery faces labour trouble amid already tight product markets! Phillips 66 has barred about 400 union workers at its Bayway refinery and Linden terminal in New Jersey after the labor contract extension expired on October 19. Company stated the lockout was necessary to ensure safe and reliable operations and said it will continue running the… E. Oil Refining
- Refinery outages - Oct 6 mbd maintenance - Argus Oct -26 - 6 mbd Nov -26- 4 mbd Refinery Outages
- Projects for storage - Vietnam and Philippines Vietnam - PVN started a study with Russia reserve development options Philippines - 33 m$ in storage projects being discussed. Stocks
- Ampol Lytton refinery extends FCC turnaround to mid November - pressuring again Australia Imports? Ampol reported that its Lytton Refinery refining margin more than doubled in Q3 2026 versus a year earlier, supported by tight global fuel markets caused by geopolitical disruptions and refinery outages. However, the margin was lower than in the previous two quarters. Despite… E. Oil Refining
- Second incident within a week at Greece Motro Oil refinery raises serious questions about safety culture and reliability! Another safety incident at the Motor Oil refinery in Corinth, Greece, resulted in serious injuries to two workers. Incident involved an explosion during maintenance welding in a high pressure unit that was offline for preventive maitenance. Local Authorities are investigating… E. Oil Refining
- HPL’s phenolics project raises India’s phenol and acetone supply - pressuring SEA suppliers Adperma Private Ltd, HPL’s wholly owned subsidiary, inaugurated the ₹6,000 crore ( ~ 625 million USD) Haldia phenol–acetone complex on October 14, 2026. The inauguration report gives nameplate capacity of 345 kt of phenol and 215 kt of acetone annually. Phenol and acetone are… Petrochemicals
- Aramco Riyadh refinery attacked again by Houthis? Impact on markets? Houthis claimed to have attacked a refinery in Riyadh in addition to attacks on Riyadh airport & Aramco HQ in Dhahran on 14th Oct. The group did not specify timing or damage details. The confrontation marks an escalation in the conflict between Houthis and Saudi Arabia. No… Refinery Outages
- Canada Oil market – challenges, trends and outlook – Long crude, Short optionality? Canada has spent decades asking how to get its oil to market. The more important question after TMX may be how long its new export optionality lasts. Production is growing, Pacific access has increased and Canadian producers have greater ability to challenge…
- Texas Tyler Refinery expansion does not yet establish a near-term Diesel supply response? Texas Tyler refinery should be viewed as a small, relatively sophisticated refinery whose advantage is domestic/light-crude access and East Texas market proximity—not as a flexible heavy-crude processor or a refinery that can readily pivot into substantially…
- Tanker market systemic shock continues with attacks in Hormuz Iranian attacks have reached tankers off Oman, at least 10 empty VLCCs and several Supermaxes bound for Fujairah have stopped or turned back. All key routes for dirty tankers are at 60 day highs. VLCC rates are up ~195% month-on-month (TD3c/TD22 $228.73/mt vs a 60-day low of… Freight
- Greece Motor Oil Refinery incident causes two fatalities - Impact on markets? Two workers died following an accident at the Motor Oil refinery near Athens, one immediately and another later from critical head injuries. Local media reported an explosion during preventive maintenance operations as the cause. Motor Oil stated it is fully cooperating with the… E. Oil Refining
- Crude and Diesel prices correct but slower than expected Oil prices are in correction mode while still staying well above $100/bbl mark. US heating oil (Diesel) are also in correction mode. Prices are staying elevated on few counts Escalation in Middle East continue. US has given marginal hints to join and support Saudi Arabia.… A. Prices
- SATORP refinery capacity restored ahead of forecasts - positive news for products? TotalEnergies confirmed that SATORP refinery in Saudi Arabia has regained 100% operational capacity after April’s drone strikes, that reduced operation to 70%. The recovery was completed earlier than initial forecast that repairs might extend beyond the end of 2026. The… E. Oil Refining
- Diesel grabs the headlines, but crude holds the bigger market signal? The market is trying to solve a diesel shortage through diplomacy and refinery recovery, while crude disruptions and tanker risks continue to undermine the solution. The bigger question is no longer whether Russia can sell diesel to the US. It is whether…
- Russia’s diesel may never reach the US. Its price impact could? The emerging diesel correction may not come from direct Russian supplies to the US or Europe’s strategic stock releases. It may come from a global reshuffling of trade flows. Rising Russian diesel exports could displace US barrels in Latin America, while…
- Isaias spares Gulf Refineries but shuts In 1.5 mb/d of Offshore Crude Hurricane Isaias largely spared US Gulf Coast refineries after tracking east, while offshore shut-ins reached ~1.5 mb/d of crude production. Key findings Initial estimates put roughly 500 kb/d of refining capacity at risk, while XA assessed ~2.7 mb/d within the projected… US refining watch
- Saudis’ Ability to Supply Energy Is Resilient, Minister Says - Bloomberg As per Bloomberg - Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline last month, with flows rising to over 80% of the link’s capacity. Meanwhile, state-run Saudi Aramco has boosted crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing total oil exports toward prewar levels in… OPEC+ & Crude Production
- India Diesel exports - off the chart India Diesel exports are at all time high touching a level above 1.1 mbd. India Diesel exports are mostly going to Africa and Europe. Why is US not buying India Diesel? Diesel
- Why crude oil prices may remain near $100 despite changing geopolitical risks Crude oil is expected to stay near $100/bbl before US elections due to high freight costs, shipping issues, and refining limits, but a future supply surplus could drop prices to the $80/bbl range after 2026, according to X-Analysts' Mukesh Sahdev A. Prices
- US exemption for diesel unlikely to have a big price impact - Rachel Ziemba OFAC has issued a SIX month exemption to the US sanctions to allow the import of Russian diesel into the US and similar exemption to restrictions on selling it to other countries. Diesel
- Hurricane Isaias threatens gulf coast refining, raising pressure on product markets! Hurricane Isaias (75 mph winds) is approaching the Gulf Coast, threatening Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Offshore oil output: ~512,000 bpd shut in (~25% of Gulf production); 16% of gas output curtailed; 8 platforms and 2 rigs evacuated. Refineries… US Oil Refining
- US Targets Iran’s Shadow Fleet in October Oil-Sanctions Action US measures announced on October 8–9 targeted vessels and international networks supporting Iranian petroleum trade, raising export-logistics pressure but leaving the physical supply impact unquantified. Key findings The October 8 action targeted 17 vessels under Operation… US -Iran - China sanctions
- Ukraine continues to strikes Russian refineries ignoring US? Gazprom Selavat Refinery attacked Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan was hit by Ukrainian drones in an overnight attack on 8th Oct. Eyewitness photos and Astra confirmed a fire near the facility. The refinery processes ~10 million tonnes of feedstock annually ( ~ 200 KBD), producing 150+… Russia-Ukraine Energy War
- China’s early-October product exports shift away from jet and diesel Observed exports in October 1–9 show lower jet/kero and diesel/gasoil rates than September, alongside higher gasoline/blending-component and other-clean-product rates, consistent with a temporary Golden Week disruption rather than a broad shutdown. Key findings Diesel/gasoil… China refining & petrochemical
- Second Russian Refinery struck within a day - Ukraine drones hit Omsk Refinery In Siberia Ukrainian drones struck Omsk Oil Refinery on October 8, 2026, located ~2,500 km from Ukraine. Omsk is Russia’s largest refinery, with an annual crude processing capacity of >21 million tonnes (~420 KBD). The plant produces a wide range of fuels, lubricants, and petrochemical… Russia-Ukraine Energy War
- Saudis in Talks to Formalize Hormuz Shuttles in Fight for Market Changes in Saudi long term contracts coming. The main mode for flows - Deliver crude outside Hormuz for buyers to pick-up. This is the 'shuttle trade'. Possible options choice of pricing benchmarks-price long-term, contractual purchases against Brent futures instead of the Dubai… Crude
- G7 Accelerates Up to 100 Million-Barrel Emergency Fuel Stock Release The G7’s accelerated release of up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel stocks is near-term bearish for refined products, but its effectiveness depends on underlying supply disruptions easing. Key findings The G7 will release up to 100 million barrels of… XA Briefs
- 2027 oil paradox: Plenty of barrels, But not the right barrels EIA Brent price outlook is increased for Q4 to $105/bbl and also for 2027. Is this just a curve lift?. The next leg of oil crisis may not begin at the wellhead. The Hormuz shock has exposed a deeper fracture in the global oil system—between the well and the…
- EIA Refinery runs outlook is much higher than earlier estimates EIA Refinery runs outlook is much higher than earlier estimates. US refining watch
- Diesel’s next fracture: Singapore squeezes, Europe recovers, US buys time Brent – The market is learning more headlines that G7 release is unlikely to be as swift as it appeared and attacks in the Persian sea and Red Sea are rising despite a lot of the narrative around flow normalization through the Hormuz. Refinery attacks in…
- What is Red Diesel? Why is this being allowed for on-road usage? No new barrel. Dyed, tax-exempt diesel intended for off-road/non-highway uses Essentially the same ULSD used on highways—generally less than≤15 ppm sulfur—but red dye is added so tax authorities can identify fuel on which highway excise tax has not been paid. It is illegal to use dyed diesel… Refining & Products
- What is moving Diesel cracks? US most resilient, NWE middle, Singapore weakest ? G7 coordinated release of 100 mb of strategic reserves, front-loaded with a diesel tranche landing within 20 days. There is correction in the cracks. NWE- ICE Gasoil ~ $72.95/bbl (Nov 26) , down $5.6/bbl US - Heating oil ~ $94.45/bbl (Nov 26), down $1.86/bbl w/w SG GO … Refining & Products
- Aramco's Petro Rabigh Refinery attacked by Houthis? More pain ahead for Diesel? Houthi military spokesperson claimed to have attacked Armaco's Petro Rabigh Refinery. The attack reportely caused a fire at the refinery, though there is no independent verification of these claims. Saudi Authorities, Aramco or Petro Rabigh have not confirmed any strikes or… Refinery Outages
- 310 kbd Venezuela Refinery halted with a diesel unit impacted. It was already running low. Cardón is currently reported shut down following a fire on 6 October. Reuters reports that a gas line connected to/passing through the diesel hydrotreater area ruptured or opened, causing a fire and some explosions. Was operating well below its capacity of 310 kbd. One part of… Refinery Outages
- OPEC+ is holding the wells. Saudi Arabia is optimizing the barrels? Brent is correcting, but the Middle East oil system is not yet normalizing. The G7 fuel release and recovery of Saudi East–West pipeline flows are taking risk premium out of Brent. Yet poor Gulf voyage visibility, refinery disruptions and continuing security…
- Neste Porwoo Refinery restaring up post turnaround - support product markets? Neste's 206 KBD Porvoo refinery completed its 9 week long maintenance turnaround on 3 October and initiated restart activities of process units. E. Oil Refining
- OPEC quota unchanged, so what for Dubai barrels? OPEC+ confirmed November quotas unchanged at Sunday's meeting — Saudi Arabia stays at 10.5mb/d. 2027 capacity review has been delayed to mid-November because members haven't submitted data Dubai
- With Red Sea staying blocked for Saudi, flows of Arab Light being maximized from Persian Gulf and Yanbu Several explosions reported in close proximity to an oil tanker -south of the Yemeni city of Al Mukha. East-West Saudi Pipeline
- Congo’s CORAF refinery modernization project - long way to go? SOCAR Downstream has been appointed project management consultant for Congo’s CORAF refinery modernization project. CORAF refinery, located in Pointe-Noire, is Congo’s only refinery. Operational since 1982 and with a design capacity of ~27 KBD, refinery is owned by National… E. Oil Refining
- OPEC+ qouta unchanged, refined products recovery from the Middle East - What is the connection? As of October 5, 2026, crude exports excluding Iran had moved above their pre-war weekly average, helped by the Saudi East–West pipeline, UAE bypass capacity and tanker-transfer workarounds. That does not mean the refined-product system has normalized: The latest completed… Diesel market
- Fire at Saudi Aramco Riyadh refinery - caused by Houthis attack? impact on markets? A fire broke out at Saudi Aramco's Riyadh refinery on Saturday. Eyewitness reported fire/plume of smoke near the refinery area Subsequently, Houthis claimed to have attacked Riyadh refinery using ballistic missiles and drones as a retailation attack for Saudi airstrikes on… Refinery Outages
- Saudi grade optimization game – Arab Light vs. Arab Medium? What is the signal for Hormuz? Arab Medium is the more exposed grade: the deeper OSP cut into Asia (-$5/bbl vs -$3/bbl for Arab Light), the larger d/d FOB move, and the weaker medium sour cracking margins all point to Arab Medium facing more pricing pressure. The $1/bbl quality premium…
- Fears of disruption to keep Brent futures elevated near 100 despite G7 announced release of 100 million barrels of oil Dated Brent is above $115/bbl and Brent futures for Dec delivery rose to $103/bbl on early Monday Oil Price Views
- Mangalore Refinery cancels fuel export tenders after fire incident - tightens diesel market? India's state-run Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) cancelled three spot export tenders for refined fuels after a fire incident at its 300KBD refinery processing unit on 30th Sept. The incident involving rupture occurred in its Coker hydrotreater unit cold high… India Refining
- Japan refinery runs increase by 7% - positive news for product markets? Japan's refinery throughput increased 7% year on year in September as facilities continued to recover from maintenance and earlier outages. As per latest weekly data, the refinery runs are 2.4 mbd average in Sep. This is very much the level of crude imports. Oil Watch - Japan
- India crude arrivals via Hormuz touch pre-war levels in latest weekly data Change in tactic - pick-up crude vs. asking for delivery given hefty discounts like Iraq SOMO offered $37/bbl. Govt advisory softened on risk of picking up cargoes. India Oil Watch
- No respite in sight for product markets? Ukraine continues to strike Russian refineries - Volgograd refinery reported fire after overnight strikes Lukoil's Volgograd refinery reported fire after getting struck overnight In a related news, President Trump reiterated Ukraianin attacks on Russain refineries as the main reason behind high diesel prices in US instead of US war with Iran. Russia-Ukraine Energy War
- Is Diesel supply getting delayed -less now, more past Nov? A significant diesel price correction during October looks increasingly difficult. The physical relief mechanisms are real—but mostly delayed. Europe is reluctant to exhaust winter stocks; Russian diesel remains constrained; and additional crude and heavy…
- Australia -face gas shortages as gas preservation policy may imapct investments More investment needed to avoid domestic shortfall on east coast. Approved domestic gas reservation scheme that will require producers to set aside a fifth of new production. LNG, LNG & Natural Gas, Australia
- Yanbu crude loadings resume with nearly 5mb loaded on Sep 26; preliminary data suggests most volumes head west of Suez East-West Saudi Pipeline
- US PADD2 refinery runs sharp decline in September - to continue or recover? Latest EIA release on 30 September, covering the week ending 25 September, indicated a sharp decline in US PADD2 refinery runs in last 2 weeks despite high diesel cracks. US Oil Refining
- 5% boost in earning for commodities for Australia owing to the Middle East crisis Australia export earning in 2026-27 Iron ore - A$107 billion . Benchmark prices for Australia’s biggest export, iron ore, have remained near $100/ton This is 50% higher than earning from LNG, 50% higher than Gold, 50% higher than coal. Lithium is still 15% of Iron ore. Non-Oil commodities, Gas/LNG, Other Commodities
- Chinese refiners suspend Oct fuel exports, PetroChina cancels cargoes Major PetroChina, opens new tab cancelled on Wednesday the majority of its gasoline and jet fuel shipments planned for October Important to note the news mentions Jet and gasoline shipments - not Diesel. Oil Refining
- The Diesel paradox: More crude won’t solve the Diesel squeeze China and the US—the two refining systems capable of materially changing the global balance—are increasingly prioritizing domestic fuel security. Dangote helps, but it is not yet large enough on diesel to replace that lost swing capacity. Insights Dots to…
- IOCL Haldia refinery expansion plan -- long way to go! Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) plan to expand its Haldia refinery in West Bengal got a fresh impetus with allocation of land by state goveremnet. IOC has long sought the land parcel to expand the refinery and add downstream petrochemical facilities, similar to its Paradip… Petrochemicals
- Dangote refinery record run eases Nigeria product imports - can it ease global diesel markets too? Dangote’s reported August throughput rose to 105.21% of the stated 700,000 b/d capacity. Nigerian crude deliveries increased to 683,000 b/d, easing feedstock constraints. Domestic petrol deliveries increased 39% to 35.87 million litres/day, supplying roughly 71% of Nigeria’s… E. Oil Refining
- 40 million barrels SPR release US DOE - Request for proposals (RFP) to exchange up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Bids due 6 Oct 2026. Earlier rounds awarded 133 million barrels. With this release, it would complete the 172 million barrels commitment as part of… Crude
- Texas emergency declaration on Diesel likely to have opposite price effect? Texas avg Diesel prices are $5.84/gallon now vs. $3/gallon in Feb-26. Texas Gov. declared a statewide disaster on Monday over soaring diesel prices. This allows lifting some restrictions on commercial transportation to use the Dyed Diesel (Red dye added to show it is untaxed… Diesel market
- Ukraine strikes on Russian Refineries - will continue or scale down?? Ukaraine president Zelensky reportedly told US president Trump that Ukraine is ready to reduce drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. Trump said in a news interview that Zelensky has responded positively when asked to ease attacks. Trump had earlier linked the refinery attacks… Russia-Ukraine Energy War
- Libya Zawiya refinery restarts as Sharara feed returns: Easing Product-supply risk Libya’s NOC restarted its refining unit at Zawiya refinery on September 27 after crude flows resumed through the Sharara–Zawiya pipeline. The crude flows through the pipeline was forcibly stopped by closing valve on September 21 due to an industrial protest. NOC says flows are… Refining & Products
- XA i-Dot: Brazil – the next oil market hotspot to watch? Brazil is long crude, but short Diesel with high US dependence. Brazil is becoming the swing barrel between the Atlantic and Asia — not because it produces the cheapest crude, but because its barrels increasingly have the right quality, geography and routing optionality.Brazil is emerging as the oil market’s two-way swing…
- SAPREF 2.0 - South Africa aiming to revive its largest refinery in Durban - will it go ahead? South Africa is aiming to revive its state-owned largest SAPREF refinery in Durban that is idling since 2022 after severe flooding damaged the facilities. SA acquired this refinery from BP and Shell in 2024 for a symbolic 1 rand. Central Energy Fund (CEF) estimated $7.15 billion… Refining
- Aster lifts force majeure on its 1.1Mtpa ethylene cracker in Singapore – bearish for SEA petchem? Aster confirmed that it has lifted force majeure (FM) on its 1.1 Mtpa ethylene cracker at Pulau Bukom. The measures were put in place on 6th March after Middle East disruptions constrained feedstock deliveries. Aster is a joint venture between Indonesia’s Chandra Asri and Swiss… Petrochemicals
- ADNOC - State giant plans to build 4 million tpa liquefaction facility in Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman State-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has selected three contractors or consortia to carry out a design competition for a new liquefied natural gas export facility bypassing any future disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. 2025 = 4.83 million metric tons total exports… LNG
- East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) nearing completion EACOP pipeline owned by TotalEnergies (62%), UNOC (15%), TPDC (15%), CNOOC (8%) reached 92.7% completion. Pipeline length : ~ 1440 kms. running from Uganda to Tanga port (Indian Ocean) in Tanzania. Capacity : ~ 216 KBD It will be used to transport Uganda’s newly branded export… Crude Pipeline
- India’s Refining Trade-Off - LPG First, Petrochemicals Next - Round 2? Bullish Petchem Indian refiners have increased LPG production in September to about 44,000 tonnes/day, which is nearly 20% above August average production. The increase was done to meet rising festive season demand amid continued supply disruptions from ME that historically has been the main… India Refining
- US LNG exports on track to top 120 million tonnes in 2026, Energy Secretary says 2025 - 100 mt of LNG exported by US (Vortexa Data - 75 mt) 2026 - Projected to export 120 mt ( at this rate 85 mt) New projects Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi LNG project in Texas Concerns by some politicians Growth in LNG exports… LNG
- Qatar Says It's Ready to Resume LNG Operations Within Weeks of Hormuz Reopening Qatar Says It's Ready to Resume LNG Operations Within Weeks of Hormuz Reopening Qatar, one of the world's top three LNG exporters before the Iran war, halted production earlier this year following attacks on its export hub and after the near-closure of the Hormuz strait. LNG… LNG
- XA i-Dot : US Treasury Yield & Diesel ban connection? Is this Diesel’s Hormuz moment? The market is debating whether the U.S. will ban diesel exports. That may be the wrong question. With U.S. diesel above $6.50/gal, the issue has moved beyond refining margins into inflation, agriculture, freight and increasingly the rates debate. A blanket…
- Global runs are recovering. The refining system isn’t. The race to break cracks: Gulf recovery, China runs or demand destruction? Global refining is running at two speeds — and the headline 4 mb/d loss hides the real disruption. Refinery runs have fallen sharply across the Middle East, Russia and parts of Asia, while refiners with secure crude access are running harder to fill the gap.…
- Ukraine drone strikes continue: Rosneft Kuibyshev Refinery struck again Rosneft’s Kuibyshev refinery in Samara was struck again by Ukraine drones on 22 September triggering a large fire Refinery was shutdown after earlier drone attacks on 10th June resulted in shudown of both crude distillation units. Kuibyshev refinery has crude processing capacity… Refinery Outages
- US Diesel export ban gaining momentum? China and U.S. refinery yields of Diesel is lower than what it used to be. Exporting Diesel from the Gulf coast is what kept Gasoline prices lower. There is an important connection in these dynamics which is not being talked about. Diesel
- Saudi Arabia Running Tests to Resume East-West Oil Pipeline - Bloomberg 1. Early stages to restore flows - later this week. 2. Signs of tankers arriving at Yanbu 3. Saudi Aramco had told 2 EU refineries - not able to give allocated Oct barrels. 4. Asia - flows resumed via Hormuz. Key to watch - if Arab Medium loads means Jizan is also starting East-West Pipeline
- XA i-Dot : India crude reset: Arb vs. Scale – Refiners are running hard — Where will the crude come from? India’s crude slate is starting to reveal the next battle for the marginal barrel. Through September, Russian crude remained resilient while Rest-of-World barrels increasingly provided the swing supply and Saudi grades lost share. Forward economics now put…
- XA i-Dot: Signals from a US $10 billion Middle East reconstruction fund? Redesigning Gulf oil logistics? Big impact on Brent-Dubai spread? A proposed $10 billion US–Middle East reconstruction fund may be less about rebuilding what was damaged and more about redesigning how Gulf energy reaches the world. The US proposes $5 billion of seed funding, matched by eight regional partners, with projects…
- VLCC rates hit record highs, driven by mainstream crude liftings to Asia - Vortexa • Middle East Gulf VLCC freight rates soar to record highs as Asia switches from high-risk to mainstream crude supplies • Saudi Arabia shift liftings towards MEG due to closure of East-West pipeline and Red Sea attacks, reducing intra-country flows • Halt in Yanbu crude loadings… Freight
- Xi-Trump talks bullish for WTI Beijing has now officially confirmed Xi Jinping’s U.S. state visit for September 23–25, at Trump’s invitation. That moves the unresolved trade package—including possible lower tariffs on “non-sensitive” goods such as energy—from the Bessent–He negotiating channel to the leaders’… Geopolitics
- CRUDE OIL - Likely Position Trimming is the reason for the drop - Brian Pieri Crude gapped down. WTI is 93.39, off roughly 7 percent from Friday's settle near 100, with Brent at 101. Heating oil is 4.89, RBOB is 3.45 and Henry Hub is 2.838, leaning on the 2.80 floor. The screen is pricing peace. Friday's COT shows a crowded long: managed money is net long… Crude
- Libya flows restored to Refinery Oil flows from Libya’s western fields to the 120,000 b/d Zawiya refinery have resumed after a brief disruption by petroleum guards protesting pay conditions. - MEES Crude
- XA i-Dot: Fear of any US penalties on Hungary Russian crude buying could temporarily strengthen MED diesel differentials?. Hungary may be a small Russian crude buyer compared with China or India, but it could become an important test case for how aggressively Washington enforces penalties on Russian-oil buyers . The consequences extend beyond Urals: pressure on MOL could redirect…
- XA i-Dot: What has changed in US-China oil systems since May? Brent bias: downside on de-escalation headlines; physical-flow recovery determines whether it lasts? China entered the Gulf crisis with perhaps the world’s most important oil cushion—and used it to absorb the shock. Chinese seaborne crude imports fell from 11.5 mb/d in February to just 6.0 mb/d in June , allowing China to stop competing aggressively for…
- XA i-Dot | The Russia sanctions bill is not just about Russia — it creates a new oil-flow optionality risk Washington has just created one of its most powerful tools yet to pressure Russia — but the bigger oil-market question is whether it will actually use it . The new sanctions bill goes beyond targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, banks and energy network. It gives…
- XA i-Dot : Saudi pipeline back in few days? Unlikely to pump a lot to Red-Sea?. More China buying from Hormuz?. Higher Diesel exports from China? The market should not confuse a Saudi pipeline restart with normalization of Saudi crude flows. The critical variable is no longer simply how much capacity comes back . It is who wants the barrels, which grades move, and whether economics favour Yanbu or…
- ExxonMobil Joliet Refinery outage tightens US Midwest products ExxonMobil’s Joliet refinery outage tightens Midwest fuel supplies, impacting gasoline and diesel markets amid already low inventories. Refinery was shut down following a site-wide power outage on 13 September , removing approximately 6% of Midwest refining… US
- XA i-Dot : Australia’s diesel challenge may be the best real-time indicator of where global diesel prices go next? Australia is small enough not to determine global diesel demand—but rich, import-dependent and remote enough to reveal how the global diesel market is clearing. Australia can buy itself out of a physical diesel crisis. But it cannot create additional global…
- Brent bias: Big East West pipeline headline, smaller barrel loss. Price upside limited? Brent’s retreat from the post-attack peak is telling. The East-West pipeline attack looked severe on headline capacity, but the incremental barrels actually at risk are likely much smaller . Saudi flows were already shifting east through Hormuz, Jizan’s…
- XA i-Dot : Chevron targets four continents in New LNG expansion drive Chevron is turning LNG diversification into a portfolio strategy. The Middle East disruption—and constrained Qatar/UAE LNG availability—has reinforced buyers’ need for supply from multiple basins rather than dependence on a single producing region.
- XA i-Dot : Syria diesel prices jump 40% triggering widespread unrest. Lost Iran, Russian crudes and lost Russian Diesel imports. US FO imports at risk? Syria’s fuel crisis is not about having no oil—it is about not having enough usable barrels. Domestic crude production covers only part of demand, while refinery outages, disrupted Russian supplies and blocked crude movements are tightening diesel and…
- Russia’s Ryazan refinery shutdown after repeat attacks: raising pressure on already heated diesel markets? Russia’s Ryazan refinery shutdown raises concerns over diesel markets amid ongoing supply pressures and geopolitical tensions. Refinery stopped crude processing after recent drone attacks and staring at multi-week supply loss. Market news reported shutdown of…
- Bab el-Mandeb escalation. Why now?. It is no longer the same chokepoint. What next? Saudi Arabia built a Hormuz bypass. The Houthis may now be sitting across it. The Houthi advance around Bab-el-Mandeb comes just as Saudi crude dependence on the Red Sea route has increased sharply. But the biggest oil-market risk may not be closure of…
- India survived the Hormuz oil shock. Now its Russia–US concentration risks face the test. What to expect with latest escalations? India’s refining system has proved far more resilient to the Hormuz disruption than the initial supply shock suggested. July runs recovered to pre-war levels as Russian crude replaced much of the lost Middle Eastern supply, refiners pushed LPG recovery higher…
- Valero Port Arthur trips into a U.S. Refining system with no spare cushion? Port Arthur may be a partial outage, but it has hit a U.S. refining system running with almost no margin for error. An estimated 295 kbd of crude capacity is disrupted just as U.S. refinery utilization reaches 98% , distillate inventories sit 14% below the…
- Russia’s refining stress mounts as it starts outsourcing refining? Kazakhstan’s Kondensat refinery to process Russian crude/condensate and send the products back Russia is sending crude out and bringing products back —a striking new response to mounting refinery disruptions. Kazakhstan’s ~17 kbd Kondensat refinery is too small to move markets, but the model could . If this crude-out/products-back strategy expands to…
- Oil Macro & Geopolitics – US Administration’s big bet on Venezuela? It’s heavy crudes, Naphtha and Fuel oil reshuffle story. While most of the Asian refineries are suffering from crude crunch, a key story is how US is progressing on getting higher access to Venezuelan barrels to keep refineries in USGC operations at very high utilization. This US push continues to provide a check…
- No respite for Russian refiners: Near-daily strikes put ~ 1.7mb/d capacity at risk in last 2 weeks tightening domestic & regional fuel markets Ukraine’s refinery campaign is shifting from isolated disruption to a persistent constraint on Russia’s refining system. The attacks have exposed around 1.7 million bpd of refining capacity, with strikes increasingly reaching large, complex plants deep inside…
- Special Edition : News vs. Numbers — US economic pressure on Iran: China is the constraint, not the sanctions toolkit? This insight is a special edition of ‘News vs. Numbers’ series produced in collaboration with Rachel Ziemba , Founder Ziemba Insights , an advisory firm that engages in macroeconomic and policy due diligence including investment scenarios for a range of…
- WTI/Brent: Economic pressure on Iran – Can November recreate the May $9 spread? The setup points toward a wider WTI discount—but a return to May’s near −$9/bbl WTI/Brent spread is not yet the base case. Higher VLCC freight, potential constraints on Persian Gulf flows and tighter Atlantic Basin sweet crude availability should strengthen…
- Brent Bias : ~$93/bbl | Weekly move: ~+5% | Bias: Limited Bullish upside, watch correction signals ahead Brent above $90 is no longer just pricing the Hormuz shock—it is increasingly pricing its duration. With the MOU nearing expiry and no deal in sight, restricted Hormuz flows, falling Russian loadings and extreme diesel cracks keep the barrel balance bullish.…
- Argentina’s crude story is moving from production growth to market displacement in Asia? Argentina’s VLCC terminal project is not simply an infrastructure story—it could change the competitive map for Atlantic Basin crude. Vaca Muerta production is increasingly exceeding what Argentina’s domestic refining system can absorb. The next constraint is… Australia
- India’s HPL adds largest phenol/acetone facility, another chemical outlet for molecules that sit at the petrochemical–fuel interface when chemical margins are strong. India’s Haldia Petrochemicals’ (HPL)new phenol/acetone complex aims to boost India’s self-sufficiency and disrupt Southeast Asian exports. The project should be viewed less as a simple capacity addition and more as an integrated molecule-upgrading move India…
- Insight Update – Third Houthi attack on Jizan – less Arab Medium, more Arab Light to the market? Jizan’s outage has removed a large captive outlet for Arab Medium, but it has not automatically released Arab Medium into Asia. Instead, Saudi Arabia’s constrained export geography is favoring Arab Light, while Asian refiners that depend on medium-sour…
- South Korea Refiners Base oils advantage: Windfall today, Structural edge tomorrow? Impact on Diesel exports? Base oil for Lubes market squeeze is another example of asymmetric market impact of the Hormuz crisis. South Korean refiners have emerged as key beneficiaries of the 2026 global base-oil squeeze with Hormuz disruption.. The earnings surge should be seen as a…
- Weekly Insights Playbook – 16 Aug 2026 – UAE Ship attack headlines are bullish than hard numbers? Bloomberg reported two UAE Ship attacks while US President is calling Hormuz Strait as US territory with total control.
- BASF Zhanjiang Ethylene derivative(MEG) outage shows why crude shocks do not pass proportionately into Petrochemical products The 2026 crude and naphtha shock did not pass proportionately through the petrochemical chain. Petrochemical chains don’t simply transmit an oil shock—they allocate it. Some of the shock appears in higher product prices, some in compressed producer margins,… Refining
- Russia crude exports are becoming an oil-market ECG – top indicator to watch as US House votes? Russia’s oil risk is no longer just about sanctions — it is about whether the barrel can find a boat, a route and a buyer. Pressure is converging across the Russian crude chain: Ukraine attacks and Black Sea risks, Turkish Straits scrutiny, Red Sea…
- Hormuz lanes-getting narrow, Loadings vs. Crossings & Crude vs. Products-gap widening? Hormuz is not one flow number — and rising loadings do not mean rising exports. The widening gap between West of Hormuz loadings and actual Strait crossings is emerging as one of the clearest signals of physical oil-market stress. Saudi Arabia moved west, UAE…
- Russia’s TANECO refinery struck gain: ~340 kbd capacity at risk raising pressure on already stressed diesel and gasoline markets The 10th August repeat attack on TANECO refinery puts around 340 kbd of highly complex Russian refining capacity back under operational risk at a time when Russia’s fuel system is already dealing with repeated refinery disruptions resulting from sustained… Refining
- Russia’s Yanos refinery struck again, putting ~300 kbd refinery at risk, raising pressure on central Russia product supply • The August 6 repeat strike on the ~300 kb/d Slavneft-YANOS refinery places one of Russia’s largest inland fuel-producing complexes back under operational pressure. • The principal immediate risk is tighter gasoline and diesel availability in Central Russia,… Refining
- Weekly Insights Playbook – 09 Aug 2026 The Middle East energy landscape is evolving—again. As we navigate the complexities of the oil market this week, it’s clear that the disruptions in the Middle East have catalyzed a significant shift in how we think about supply chains and geopolitical risk.…
- IOCL Panipat Refinery +200 kbd: India’s next crude-demand engine starts taking shape to reach 500 kbd. Crude and products market shifts in 2027? 200 kbd of new refining capacity does not simply mean 200 kbd more crude demand. IndianOil’s Panipat expansion from ~300 kbd to ~500 kbd is nearing the finish line, with December 2026 targeted for completion. But the bigger market story is what happens next.… Refining
- Iran-China dark trade, the missing 60-70 million barrels disappearing between Hormuz and Chinese refineries, signal for the market ahead? The Iran-China crude trade has become increasingly opaque since the March conflict. While Iranian export loadings have remained resilient, Chinese arrivals have fallen well short of departures, creating a growing pool of “missing” barrels somewhere between…
- News vs. Number- Lukoil’s Perm Refinery attack, the emerging pattern and what is not fully priced in Diesel? Overall, Russia’s refining sector is becoming structurally more vulnerable. Repeated attacks on key inland refineries increase the risk of cumulative capacity losses, longer maintenance cycles, and higher security expenditure. Russia is exporting 25% of… Refining
- Weekly Insights Playbook – 02 Aug 2026 As the oil markets navigate through a turbulent landscape, the recent attacks on key refining infrastructure have heightened concerns over global diesel supply and geopolitical stability. The interplay of upstream spares and downstream scares is more…
- Saudi Aramco Jizan Refinery attack- Another blow to Global Diesel A reported Houthi attack has shut down Saudi Aramco’s 400 kb/d Jizan refinery , removing one of the Kingdom’s most strategic Red Sea refining hubs just as markets are grappling with disruptions across Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Russian refining . This insight… Refining
- Another Russia Tyumen Refinery attack, Atlantic Basin Diesel cracks converge as it replaces Asia as the tightest market Attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine are increasing in its distance and scale of impact with now main diesel and gasoline units being targeted. The attack on Tyumen located 2000 km demonstrates the market impact cannot discount like earlier attacks. This…
- Third crude wave in making, watch for the next big price correction? Trade arrival waves, not loading waves? The 2026 Hormuz crisis has fundamentally broken the traditional relationship between crude loadings, transit crossings and arrivals. While alternative routes have prevented a complete collapse in exports, they have also created large volumes of crude trapped…
- 28th July-FO cracks Analysis The macro trend is of decline of FO exports. 1) Closures of refineries, mostly simple 2) Upgrading improvements in ME, Russia and Africa 3) Overall less heavy/medium sour crudes. ME exports dropped avg 900 kbd to 300 kbd. Still lower 400-500 kbd. The increase…
- The Black Sea–Caspian system: The next geopolitical chokepoint with ports and pipes concentration risk rising? What the insight covers? 1) Explains why the Black Sea-Caspian corridor has become one of the world’s most strategic oil export systems. 2) Tracks the evolution of crude and product flows across Black Sea, Caspian and Mediterranean export routes. 3) Analyses…
- Know Oil Series : Crudes – Kazakhstan grades – CPC and KEBCO? KEBCO is not a new crude oil—it is a new commercial identity for Kazakhstan’s export barrels. The crude remains largely the same as CPC Blend (Caspian Pipeline Consortium Blend) , but since 2022 the branding and certification allow buyers to distinguish it… Refining
- Weekly Insights Playbook -25th July-26- Brace for asymmetric outcomes. The oil market is at a crossroads, where geopolitical tensions and logistical constraints are reshaping supply dynamics. This week, we observed significant developments that could redefine the trajectory of oil flows and pricing. As upstream spares dwindle,…
- Near 1 mbd jump in oil flows from Egypt, Turkey, Syria and Jordan? It’s mostly fuel oil. Why? The market should not focus only on crude exports. The more important development is that Iraq has found a partial workaround. It is converting stranded crude into movable fuel oil. As long as Hormuz remains constrained, refinery utilisation—not just crude… Refining
- Red sea on red alert. Market to brace for asymmetric market outcomes? The biggest risk is not a complete closure of Bab-el-Mandeb but a partial disruption that slows cargo movements, lengthens voyages, and reduces effective tanker capacity. Such an outcome would tighten crude availability for Asian refiners and strengthen… Crude, Oil products, Refining
- WTI price moves – Decoding the trajectory and price move ahead? Private members post – Reach out to discuss the topic. This note examines WTI price moves in the market – particularly weakening against expectations multiple times during the crisis this year.
- Panama Canal water supply driven vessel curtailments – early signals for the petchem markets crisis? The Panama Canal is not closing. But the latest reduction in vessel booking capacity is another reminder that the world is no longer dealing with isolated chokepoints. It is dealing with multiple simultaneous constraints across the global maritime network.… Australia
- Know Oil Series: Panama Canal – More than a shortcut, a strategic geopolitical and climate risk The Panama Canal is often viewed as simply a shipping shortcut. In reality, it sits at the intersection of engineering, climate risk, geopolitics and global supply chains. Understanding how the canal works—and who controls the surrounding ecosystem—is…
- Is the US getting close to controlling Hormuz for asymmetric flows? The US may be moving closer to tactical control of Hormuz, but the market should not yet confuse military dominance with normal commercial passage. The near-term direction could be toward a selectively reopened strait in which Washington increasingly controls… Crude, Oil products, Refining
- Weekly Insights Playbook – 19 Jul 2026 -Geopolitical tensions reshape the oil landscape: Are we prepared for the ripple effects? This week, the oil market is grappling with a series of events that could have significant implications for supply chains and pricing structures. The interplay between upstream supply and downstream refining capabilities is becoming increasingly critical, as…
- From Black sea to Bashkortostan: Ukraine widens Russia’s refinery risk map with strikes on Neftekhim & Afipsky refineries The Salavat and Afipsky strikes reinforce that Ukraine’s refinery campaign is evolving from isolated tactical attacks into a broader effort to degrade Russia’s fuel-production and logistics system. Salavat is the more strategic target because it is a large… Crude, Oil products, Refining
- Data Alert – India raises taxes on diesel and jet fuel exports Reuters reported India has raised windfall taxes on exports effective 16th July of diesel and aviation turbine fuel as global oil prices surge amid an escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, according to a government order. The duty on diesel exports has…
- Hormuz flows: Why Dubai curve may be reading loading, not Hormuz exits? (Video Insight) Dubai weakness may reflect expectations that Iraqi barrels continue flowing. Physical export data suggests visible flows remain weaker than loading activity implies. Asian refiners may delay Atlantic purchases if they believe Gulf exports are normalising. If… Crude, Oil products, Refining
- Data Alert – How much more crude supply can come from Venezuela? How growth in Venezuela is gain for India and pain for China and Russia? Venezuela’s return to the market has become one of the most important supply-side themes since the geopolitical shift in January 2026. The story is no longer simply about higher production—it is about the reshuffling of global heavy crude trade flows,…
- Hormuz 2.0: 125 million barrels crude at immediate risk. WTI to trade premium over Brent? Approximately 125 million barrels of expected crude exports are immediately exposed during the balance of July and August. Not all these barrels will be lost. Some will move through pipelines, alternative terminals or protected shipping corridors. But the… Crude, Oil products, Refining
- Ukraine deepens pressure on Russia’s fuel supply chain with strike on Syzran refinery The Syzran refinery strike is important because it combines refinery-processing risk with logistics disruption. On nameplate capacity alone, Syzran represents around 170 kb/d of crude-processing capacity, but its true market importance lies in its role as an… Crude, Oil products, Refining
- XA News headlines in advance – Iraqi PM to meet US President Trump in Washington to deepen strategic ties? There is news reporting that Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi will depart for the week-long visit on Monday to visit the United States to meet President Donald Trump in his first international trip since taking office. This is a very important news to watch…
- Weekly Insights Playbook – 12 Jul 2026 – Super Bullish, Bullish, or Super Bearish? A deep dive into three potential oil price scenarios reveals the factors shaping market sentiment.
- Special weekend insight : Super bullish, bullish and super bearish – three oil price scenarios in the making. Which one has higher probability to play out and why?10 X factors to watch. Brent closed trading near the high $70s level on Friday, with fresh geo-political escalation. There is news reporting that US has reiterated that ceasefire is over, but says U.S. to continue negotiating. This is happening at a time when many Gulf states had…
- Ukraine expands Deep-Strike campaign with drone attacks on Russia’s YANOS and Omsk Refineries The reported drone attacks on YANOS and Omsk refineries mark a further escalation in Ukraine’s campaign against Russian downstream infrastructure. The key market signal is not yet confirmed physical damage, but the widening geographic reach of refinery risk —… Crude, Oil products, Refining
- XA Charts flash – Oil market trajectory by tracking US EIA Short term energy outlooks for the year The EIA released the latest version of STEO (Short Term Energy outlook) on 7th July, just days before the fresh escalation in US-Iran crisis. This insight tracks all the changes in oil fundamentals at macro global and micro US level to provide a view on what…
- Iraq – Biggest loser or biggest winner from the fresh US-Iran escalation? OSPs war – Official Struggling Prices? Fresh US strikes on Iranian military targets following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed geopolitical risks back to the forefront. While headlines suggest a renewed threat to Gulf exports, the numbers tell a more nuanced story.…
- Has Hormuz recovered? The data says not yet. The market appears to be confusing direction with destination. It may be prudent to conclude that worst is over but far from normal. To conclude normalization is extrapolation too early even if we include some dark trade flows that may be there. The overall… Crude, Iran, Oil prices
- India’s Rajasthan Pachpadra Refinery commissioning marks key step in its Refining & Petchem growth strategy HRRL commissioning and inauguration is a structurally important development for India’s refining & petrochemical sector because it adds new capacity in north-west India, a region that has historically depended heavily on product movement from coastal and… Refining
- Weekly Insights Playbook – 04 Jul 2026 Oil Market Weekly Update As we entered July, the oil market finds itself at a crossroads, with prices stabilizing but risks evolving. The shift from concerns over crude supply to the challenges of refining capacity is reshaping trading strategies and…
- Georgia’s only Kulevi oil refinery (24 kbd) to stop processing Russian crude. Small numbers but important significance from geo-politics angle. Is Georgia putting pressure in anticipation of diesel export ban from Russia? That may be the real story. News (back to index) Numbers Georgia -product imports -20-50 kbd Majority of the Diesel came from Russia. Product imports from Russia Crude imports –… Refining
- XA Watch – The state of the Strait – vessel tracking disconnects? This video insight is part of the weekly series that aims to examine how crude and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding export routes are evolving, highlighting the need to look at all routes out of the middle east and not just look at…
- Oil market: Back to where prices started, but not back to where risks started? Market Context / Trigger The market has moved from asking: Will we lose crude? to asking Who will process the crude?. That is a fundamental shift. The emergency response successfully replaced much of the lost upstream supply, but replacing damaged or…
- Refining Alert – Australia’s Geelong refinery RFCC restarting but Alkylation unit remains offline? Market Context / Trigger According to news report, Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery is in start-up of its RFCC (Residue Fluidized Catalytic Cracking) unit this week after completion of repairs, allowing the site to increase run rates to over 90% of normal… Australia, Crude, Oil prices
- Venezuela Amuay refinery shutdown with earthquake – More crude exports, but not a market changer? Market Context / Trigger PDVSA’s 645 kb/d Amuay Refinery, Venezuela’s largest refinery, suffered a complete shutdown on 28 June 2026 following the nationwide power outage triggered by the earthquake. While Amuay’s nameplate capacity is significant, actual… Crude, Iran, Oil prices
- Iraq–Iran engagements point to a new geopolitical pattern in the Middle East? Signals for a price war? Market Context / Trigger A series of political and energy developments over the past week are pointing towards an emerging geopolitical realignment in the Gulf. Individually, each headline appears incremental. Together, they may signal a much larger strategic…
- China crude oil imports are at lowest levels for June, unlikely to recover? I News informs. Numbers explain. XA connects the dots. I News -The headline everyone is reading is that June is likely to close as the lowest month of crude imports in China averaging around 6 million barrels per day, about 50% lower than Feb-2026. Many… Crude
- Refining Alert – Russia’s Moscow refinery outage following repeated drone strikes highlights fuel supply risks for domestic & export markets? Market Context / Trigger According to a Reuters report, Russia’s Gazprom owned ~240 KB/D Moscow refinery is likely to stay offline at least till end of this year after suffering extensive damage from recent Ukrainian drone attacks. The refinery has been… Refining
- What does the loss of Dubai backwardation signal? Probability of deepening of contango in the front? Market Context / Trigger Hormuz is technically open, but tanker traffic and loading operations are recovering much more slowly than the headlines suggest. Shipping bottlenecks, insurance issues, vessel repositioning and export terminal congestion mean prompt…
- Oil prices to find direction from what has not happened vs. what has happened or is happening? Market Context / Trigger The Hormuz crisis has gone through multiple cycles of fear and relief. Markets have repeatedly priced increasingly severe geopolitical outcomes before quickly reverting as those scenarios failed to materialise. The continuous shifts… Crude, Iran, Oil prices
- Hormuz is opening? Upstream crude production ‘spares’ vs. downstream crude refining ‘scares’ ahead? Market Context / Trigger Hormuz is reopening – traffic returning?. This was the question in the morning. By the evening here in Asia, the news of snag in talks has hit the market. That’s nothing new. Time to keep an eye on the next market structural challenge… Crude, Iran, Oil prices
- Refining Alert – Nigeria Dangote Refinery’s RFCC unit recovery in June or later – to ease regional gasoline markets or increase volatility? Explore the Refinery Market Analysis Playbook Market Context / Trigger Dangote Refinery’s Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit has reportedly been operating at reduced rates since 21 May, at around two-thirds of capacity, following feedstock constraints and… Crude, Oil prices
- Refinery Market Analysis Playbook -the modeling advantage for Analysts and Traders Quantify refinery outage impacts within minutes Run Real-time 600+ refinery optimizations in under 30 minutes Identify crude valuation opportunities before market pricing adjusts Perform What-If simulations with speed and ease Connect refinery operations… Refining
- Oil macro bias update – Oil gets a peace deal or a pause deal? Market context The prospect of a US-Iran agreement and a gradual reopening of Hormuz has pushed Brent lower toward the $84/bbl level. The market has corrected by roughly $4/bbl from recent highs, but the move appears to be encountering resistance as traders…
- Asian fuel exporters fuel policy response following Hormuz closure affecting product markets? Market Context: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the most significant Asian energy security response since the 2022 global energy crisis. While all major Asian fuel exporting countries have tried to implement some measures to protect domestic… China, India, Oil products
- China delaying a new Oil refinery & Petchem plant is not usual? Market context China has postponed the startup of the 300,000 bpd Huajin Aramco Petrochemical refinery in Panjin, Liaoning Province, from mid-2026 to September–October 2026. The joint venture between Saudi Aramco, Norinco Group, and Panjin Xincheng Industrial…
- Refining Alert – India BPCL schedules Mumbai Refinery turnaround, signalling Q4 product supply tightening risk Market Context / Trigger: Reuters reported that India’s Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) will shut down one 120 KB/D crude processing unit (CDU) and other associated secondary units at its Mumbai refinery in November for planned maintenance. The… India, Oil products, Refining
- Fresh US strikes on Iran persists uncertainty in the prompt, while adding certainty to the longer term disruption.10X factors to watch. The latest US strikes on Iran are being viewed by the market as measured self-defence actions, broadly proportional to the earlier downing of a US helicopter. The response has so far been interpreted as contained rather than escalatory. This assessment is… China, Crude, India
- US Diesel markets: front-end correction likely has more room before a bounce Market context The diesel forward curve has seen a significant correction at the front end relative to the back end. The move is counter-seasonal and is visible across the U.S., Europe and Singapore markets. This note looks at the fundamental drivers behind…
- OPEC break down – What is one headline to be prepared for post Iran war? Market context The most important consequence of a potential breakdown in OPEC+ cooperation is not that production rises immediately. It is that the market loses its coordinating mechanism. If quotas effectively disappear, much of the existing OPEC+ framework… Oil prices
- Oil Refining Watch – Russian Refining disruptions compound product losses from Middle East outages Market Context / Trigger The first edition of Oil Refining Watch highlighted the impact of Middle East refinery disruptions on global oil product balances following escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. This second edition highlights another… Oil products, Refining, Russia
- Oil Macro – stock draws analysis -20th May 2026 Key slides on oil macro and insights – to evaluate a bullish or bearish price movement. Key bias The Strait of Hormuz blockade has resulted in 8 million barrels per day global crude & products loss, with OECD liquid inventories projected to drop from 4.4… Crude, Oil prices
- US-China- #Hormuz is closed. #Diplomacy opened today? market context The 8 May note established a structurally bullish oil bias anchored in a geopolitical risk-premium framework. It highlighted that US-led containment efforts against China were intensifying but had so far failed to secure meaningful strategic… China, Iran, US
- Refining Alert – Saudi Arabia Jazan Refinery Reformer outage tightens regional gasoline markets Market Context / Trigger: There is a news reporting that Saudi Aramco has shipped out two medium sized naphtha tankers from the Red Sea following an outage of ~ 85 kb/d catalytic reformer at 400 kb/d Jazan refinery. Though the reformer restart timelines are… Oil products, Refining
- Refining Alert – PBF Chalmette Reformer Explosion Highlights Gasoline Supply Risk Ahead of US Peak Summer Demand Market Context / Trigger: According to a Reuters report, a heater linked to catalytic reformer unit at PBF Energy’s Chalmette refinery in Louisiana exploded, triggering fires that were brought under control within a few hours. Though the extent of the damage… Oil products, Refining, US
- Diesel price rally->Diesel maximization->Gasoline and Jet shortages? Every diesel producer/supplier country maximized diesel make as prices spiked. How? The data indicates -Yield shifts to maximize diesel at expense of Gasoline/Jet -Quality relaxations – produced less ULSD 10 ppm and blend more components with higher sulfur… Oil products, Russia
- Impact of recent US sanctions on Chinese “Teapots” refineries? Impact of recent US sanctions on Chinese “Teapots” refineries? by Rajesh Chopra, Aman Shukla, Mukesh Sahdev The following five Chinese refineries were identified in the US OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) alert dated 28 April 2026 due to their alleged… Iran, Refining, Russia
- India – Resilient navigation of war crisis and what is next? Since the Ukraine war in 2022, oil prices have remained in a prolonged correction phase, driven largely by fears of energy-transition-led demand erosion even as global spare production capacity stayed largely intact. OPEC played a critical stabilising role… India, Iran, Oil products
- US-China – Market shifting focus from Iran deal, Hormuz to China? The most critical question for the market is whether the US and China can find common ground and reach a broader strategic understanding that ultimately enables resolution of both the Iran and Ukraine conflicts. The US President has repeatedly hinted that… Iran, Russia
- US -Iran blockade-Is it working and is it getting fully priced in? Link to the mind-map we developed yesterday, https://share.mindmanager.com/?mm_link_external=true#publish/bhXxvOkQISTvdPqrfBoJV6An-ZLmjPL5eskTIZN1 Analysis of the US-Iran blockade, UAE-Iran link and some trade ideas. First trade positions 1. Sell Extreme… Iran, US
- UAE OPEC exit signals a strong China influence in Middle East future The UAE exit from OPEC represents a major structural shift in global oil markets. As a significant exporter of crude oil, refined products, and LNG, the UAE plays a critical role in supplying Asian demand centers. This note examines the possible drivers… UAE, US
- Oil Refining Watch- ME refining double blow-damage and disruption by Rajesh Chopra, Aman Shukla, Mukesh Sahdev Brent is touching near $105 level on signs of no resolution and ceasefire. The longer length of Hormuz disruption is causing the pain in flows beyond the damage. Many of refining facilities are operating at very… Iran, US
- EU – Jet and Diesel Bloomberg note Link -Shell Pernis in max jet mode. KLM reducing flights. – Pernis supplies UK and Germany by pipeline. – At max Pernis can make 40 kbd. Base may be around 20-25 kbd. Overall does not look EU can do much. Global Jet flows – not a lot – main… US
- Australia Oil Watch – Geelong fire, fuel situation dire? Geelong refinery fire has come at a very critical time for the fuel situation in Australia. As per news reporting, the fire is in the gasoline producing unit, which the main processing of the refinery. This note examines the details of the fuel situation and… Australia, Iran, Refining
- Oil-March war, April supply crisis, May demand collapse? KEY POINTS A.US blocking Iran ships is likely a master stroke by the US. 1. Strangulates Iran’s finances.2. Forces severe pain for China crude sourcing. 3. Forces Asian refineries to buy more US energy – crude, products and LNG.4. Limits military cost of war… Iran, Russia
- 10 Apr -Hormuz tracker – flows past its lowest point Ship and flow shifts Ship movements Crude Ship movements Diesel Ship movements LPG Crude flows Product flows Iran, Strait of Hormuz
- Two-week ceasefire or Too weak ceasefire? Two-week ceasefire or Too weak ceasefire? 8 April 2026|Hormuz Oil Watch, XA members access Hormuz is reopening as a managed chokepoint, not a free-flowing artery—and that distinction will matter for price formation in the weeks ahead. Oil markets have seen a… Iran, US
- Iran war trajectory answer lies not in what happens in Hormuz? Executive Summary ~40 days into the Iran war, global oil and gas markets have transitioned from shock to adaptation. Supply disruptions—especially around Hormuz—have been partially offset by rerouting, stock drawdowns, and strategic positioning by major… Iran, Russia
- The oil market’s easter price curve-quake? What’s next? In first two days of April, the oil markets have experienced a sort of an earth quake or better to call it a curve quake. In one day, the WTI futures jumped from near $98/bbl to $114/$/bbl before settling at $112/bb rising above Brent futures. Dated Brent,… Iran, Russia
- Australia Oil Watch – Crude and Diesel arrivals improve This note is part of the Australia Oil Watch series, as the Gulf crisis continues without a clear resolution. The Prime Minister’s recent address aimed at calming public concerns is broadly supported by current data, particularly with respect to crude… Australia, India, US
- EU – Jet /Diesel imports – how will it get the flows? This analysis explorer – where the diesel squeeze will come the most. Considering ME and Asia would be challenged, loss for EU could be made by US by diverting away from Latam. So Africa and Latam will bear the highest pressure. Australia exposure is tricky… Oil products, Russia
- Is the U.S. insulated or isolated from the war in the gulf? Market context : The prevailing market narrative suggests that the United States is largely insulated from Middle East geopolitical tensions, particularly in terms of domestic price pressures. While this argument holds some merit—given U.S. energy… US
- Is the worst over for Asia’s oil shock? What is Dubai mispricing? Market context The Middle East crisis has delivered a major shock to Asian oil supply chains, exposing vulnerabilities across the region. While most countries were unprepared, China stands out due to its prior stockpiling and strategic positioning.… Iran, Russia
- Hormuz Impacted 5 #HI5 -News vs. Numbers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, UAE and Oman are five Hormuz impacted countries. The last week of February, these five countries were pumping 25 million barrels to the market. This week the number is around 7 mbd. By the time the week closes, it could be near 8-9… Iran, Russia, Strait of Hormuz
- Fast forward – Hormuz opening will solve crude problem, product problem likely to linger on for longer •Hormuz is a HI5 (Hormuz Impacted 5) problem, Non-Hormuz route could be next target deepening the crisis of alternatives •Timing for now – 10 days more will bring Asia’s pain to ‘severe’ levels. That’s the window for US-China deal. •Even if war ends, Hormuz… Oil prices, Strait of Hormuz, US
- Diesel watchers -Don’t forget the Diesel crunch Down Under? Australia’s weekly oil imports, mostly refined products oscillate between 0.8 mbd to 1.5 mbd and monthly average around 1.0-1.1 mbd. Almost half of that is Diesel imports. Being a country of 1 mbd short in today’s market is a huge exposure. What compounds… Australia, Strait of Hormuz, US
- Brent @115 – Is there a price safety valve? Brent is topping a new high near $115/bbl. Price cap on Russian crudes was the mechanism adopted by the EU in 2022 to achieve check on oil prices and Russian revenues. India was allowed to purchase with the price cap and even encouraged by then US ambassador… China, India, Oil prices
- Refinery Alert – Pengerang outage Tests Crude Sourcing Resilience for Import-Dependent Refineries Market context / trigger Pengerang Refining Company (PrefChem) has reduced operations at its 300 kb/d refinery in Pengerang, Johor (Malaysia) following an unplanned shutdown of one of its two 70 kb/d gasoline-producing RFCC (Residue Fluidized Catalytic… Petchem, gas and NGLs, Refining
- XA Oil price bias -06 March-Is the next stop $90 or contango? Is it time to call a contango when the war stops? There are signals building for a oil boomerang and it is important to evaluate a post war contango. Signals are beginning to build for a potential oil “boomerang,” and it is increasingly important to evaluate… Iran, Oil prices, Russia
- The Oil and gas market webinar – XA bias – US likely to strengthen leverage despite current fuzzy signals Key insights 1) Framing: “Energy market virus” + intent of the webinar 2) Signal quality: clear signals vs “fuzzy/AI-generated” narratives 3) Market state: price level matters less than structure/curves 4) Hormuz: “functionally closed” even if not officially… Iran, Russia
- Qatar LNG – Would flows have had to stop anyway? by Paul Martin, Chief Gas/LNG Analyst Market context -Prior to Qatar Energy’s announcement on 2 March that it would halt LNG export loadings because of direct military action on its Ras Laffan export facility, Qatar’s ability to maintain production without a… Iran, Russia
- 02-March-26 -Brent price – 10 reasons why its not $100 yet? Why it may not reach there? The markets opened in Asia with Brent holding below the $80 mark for now. XAnalysts has consistently highlighted a bias below the $80 handle across various notes and media engagements. This note examines in detail why we are not at the $100 level and why it… China, Crude, India
- Oil Market scenarios sequence and what is not priced in? This note builds on the earlier analysis of oil price movements and subsequent market discussions. Several elements of the prior framework have partially materialized, which provides a basis to extend the scenario analysis. The objective here is not to make… Iran, Russia
- Refinery Alert – Saudi Ras Tanura hit-does not seem like a big thing News reporting of a big oil refinery in Ras Tanura hit in Saudi. From the details, this does not seem a big blow out or damage. Watch https://x.com/michaelh992/status/2028370471536738400?s=20 Watch https://x.com/Currentreport1/status/2028363990884405585?s=20… Refining, US
- Iran – Chaos now, confusion next. What’s clear for oil markets – China – Russia big squeeze is coming. Oil price rally on Monday may be over before it starts. China-Russia in the biggest trouble. War on Ukraine is over soon. Russian flows to India go to zero. In an earlier note on 30th Jan, XA called for big attack on Iran without Hormuz disruption. It’s… Iran, Russia
- UAE being hit hard. Why? Long WTI vs. short Murban – WTI to win soon? Market context/trigger WTI and Murban compete for Asian crude demand neck to neck. Murban from UAE has been gaining upper hand. In the retaliation to US-Israel attacks on Iran, UAE and its flagship city Dubai has come under heavy attack by Iran’s missiles.… Iran, Russia
- OPEC is a two way street, not a one way highway. It’s POPEC that matters .i.e. products export? The OPEC meeting is scheduled for this Sunday. Market sentiment suggests there are sufficient supporting factors for the group to add supply. Several dynamics justify a potential increase: -Elevated geopolitical risk premium -Strong backwardation in crude… Crude, Iran, Oil prices
- US Oil Watch – Marathon Catlettsburg refinery extended outage- a precursor of the summer sparks in the market? Market context/trigger Three hundred kbd Marathon Catlettsburg refinery in the US, Kentucky suffered an unexcepted power outage in mid-Feb. As per news reporting, the refinery is expected to shut down for 2-3 weeks or more. This is a refinery with a large cat… Oil products, Refining, Russia
- India Oil Watch #05: Zero Russian processing requires higher heavy and medium sour availability? Bullish medium/heavy diffs. India crude imports from Russia has been on a declining trajectory from peak near 2.0 mbd to 1.1 mbd expected arrivals in Feb-26. The US demand has been to bring the volumes to zero, while India has not clearly specified its position. EU sanctions on products… Iran, Refining, Russia
- XA Eye – Indian Refinery Run cuts ahead? Question in today’s AP & LTO call on India refinery run rates and possible run cuts with loss of discounts and lack of right crude availability plus pressure on product cracks in SG. High level view expressed that the lowering could be in few hundred only <… Refining, Russia
- India Oil Watch #05- Zero Russian crude shock for Indian oil refining? Zero Russian processing requires higher heavy and medium sour availability? Bullish medium/heavy diffs. by Mukesh Sahdev, Rajesh Chopra India crude imports from Russia has been on a declining trajectory from peak near 2.0 mbd to 1.1 mbd expected arrivals in… Russia
- XA Eye – Cuba product imports -crash from 100 kbd to zero-does it matter? Russian diesel flows to Brazil does matter. Market trigger/context 1.Cuba has historically depended on oil/product imports from Venezuela and Mexico to satisfy roughly 60–70% of its energy needs; Venezuelan supplies once exceeded ~100 kbd at peak levels under Petrocaribe arrangements. 2.In 2025,… Russia
- XA Eye- Hormuz vessel watch- Slow arrivals in Asia, faster depletion of floating storages, bullish signals? The divergence between vessel counts and crude volumes continues to appear in the data. The key question is whether this reflects a data artefact or a genuine shift in market dynamics. Following detailed discussions with Vortexa, the conclusion is that the… Crude, US
- XA Oil price bias-19th Feb-Market is pricing attack on Iran, but no Hormuz oil disruption? Brent crude has reclaimed the $70/bbl handle amid rising fears of escalation in the Middle East. The dominant market narrative argues that crude is not fully pricing in a geopolitical risk premium, leaving room for a potential price blow-out scenario that… Crude, Iran, Oil prices
- International Energy Week @ London -Top 10 key take aways Attended the IE week in London last week covering events and insight sharing sessions from the best in the industry – S&P, Oil Brokerage, Kpler, Argus, Rystad Energy, Bloomberg. Here’s a summary of the key points discussed in conversation with Jorge… Crude, Iran, Russia
- XA Eye – Hormuz stress indicators This note explores flow shifts across many maritime routes and not just St of Hormuz to see the stress build-up. Started with few hypothesis in mind and plan to keep watching. May be there are data completion issues. The below show charts flow changes in… US
- Gasoline recycle in US? Texas to Bahamas to California – watch out on Jones Act repeal noise and price impact Market context/trigger California gasoline imports have been rising significantly with less supply from domestic refining. 2025 marked the year of highest imports touching a peak near 180 kbd in Nov-2025, from average levels of 60 kbd in prior years. Top… Oil products, Russia
- Saudi OSP Watch for Mar-26- Official selling or support prices? Any signal for the OPEC+ action ahead? Reuters reported today on potential change in OPEC+ strategy and resumption of increase in oil output. Exclusive: OPEC+ leans towards resumption in oil output increases from April, sources say This note explores the key signals for or against the OPEC plan to… Crude, Russia
- Nigeria Oil Watch #01-Declining Upstream, reviving Downstream – Crude prices OSP lift? Bloomberg reported today on Nigerian refineries turning to China for restart of idle refineries. Other than Dangote, Nigeria has four sites with capacity of near 450 kbd. Crude processing is almost nil at these sites despite rehabilitation efforts. This… US
- 16-Feb-2026 : Oil flows – Hormuz vessel count Latest update There is news reporting that IRGC conducted a drill named ‘Smart Control of Hormuz Strait’ in Hormuz ahead of talks in Geneva testing its readiness in case of talks failure. While Marco Rubio indicated in Budapest today – making a deal will be… Iran, Strait of Hormuz, US
- US-Iran talks on Friday-Bullish or Bearish bias? Brent and WTI corrected with news of US-Iran talks coming up on Friday in Oman. Latest news indicates that there is misalignment on scope of the talks. Iran has requested to keep it to the nuclear question, while US is aiming to include ballistic missiles,… Crude, Iran, Russia
- Another Urals vs. ESPO reshuffle – bullish or bearish for Dubai? The US has slashed tariffs on India, reportedly on the basis of reduced purchases of Russian barrels. Arrivals of Russian Urals into India have indeed declined in recent months. This reduction is largely due to EU sanctions on the import of refined products… China, India, Iran
- India Oil Watch #04- 1 mbd crude hole? Basrah Hvy bullish signal There is lots of chatter and discussion in media around India potentially dropping crude imports from Russia to ZERO as per the social media message from the US President. There is no official confirmation from the Indian side. Based on the trade flow data,… Crude, Iran, Russia
- XA Oil price bias-2nd Feb- OPEC actions vs. announcements? In the note on 30th Jan, this bias was indicated – “XA call is that weekend will likely pass with war of words and US action is still some time away”. For now, this has turned out to be true and entry into the 70s proved to be slippery. This note provides… US
- XA Oil price bias-30th Jan- Sticky 60s to slippery 70s? 30 January 2026|Insights, XA members access, XA Oil price bias US action is likely to make the strait of Hormuz -Iran proof before any big attack or action happens. Highest ever probability of Iran disrupting it and lowest probability of it actually happening… Iran, Oil prices, Russia
- Brent-Dubai Curve watch#01-What is market mispricing? Brent futures and Dubai swaps are in divergence. Why? This note explores that and provides a view of what happens next w.r.t India’s Russia crude buying, OPEC action on Sunday meeting, Iran action and China moves. XA bias •China buying likely to slow down for… China, Crude, India
- Iraq Oil Watch #01 -US oil target remains China and India? Bullish signals adding up for heavy sour crude & fuel oil Market trigger/context Another addition to middle east tension is emerging with US posturing a hard stance towards Iraq as Nouri Maliki, who has links to Iran, is likely to return to power. Mr. Maliki… Iran, US
- Russia Gas Watch #01– Would RU gas by another name be a cheat? by Paul Martin, Guest Gas/LNG Expert Market context The EU this week brought its intended forever-ban on Russian pipeline gas and Russian LNG into effect, with the European Council formally adopting the phase out legislation. The text was agreed and key… Russia
- India Oil Watch #03-watch finished vs. intermediate product flows? Refer earlier note on India Oil Watch#02 – Crude sourcing challenge in a glut year? where the analysis provided a bias that India is in tough spot in terms of crude sourcing and there is no easy way out. India oil CEOs are posturing to get the Venezuelan oil.… Russia
- Canada Oil Watch #01- US-Canada-China oil triangle Canada is now caught in the crossfire of US-China battling the energy dominance. Beyond the rhetoric and hot talk of US imposing 100% tariffs on Canada from 1st Feb, the cold signal from the numbers is that US-Canada oil connection is so deep in chemistry and… Iran, US
- Angola to china pipeline Analysis of the Angola to China crude oil pipeline route and trade flows. China
- India Oil Watch#02 – Crude sourcing challenge in a glut year? India’s purchase of Russian crude despite US pressure has put India in a bind on crude sourcing it seems. Indian state refineries have expressed that they can process the Venezuelan crude along with Reliance. IOC Chairman shared this view. XA bias is that a… Crude, Iran, Russia
- 21th Jan-XA Oil Price Watch- Tariff boomerang in 2026? XA Watch – Video note IMF MD painted a positive story at Davos with key data-points as below. Watch IMF’s Georgieva on Trade Tariffs, AI, Venezuela, Ukraine – Bloomberg US President views are awaited in Davos. US Treasury Secy has questioned EU purchase of… Russia
- Iran Oil Watch#02-Fuel Oil links with UAE? Market context – US has announced that countries doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on trade they do with America. China is its biggest export partner for Iran. The other big partners trading with Iran are Iraq, UAE and Turkey as per this BBC… Iran, US
- Hormuz Oil Watch #01-growing risk for light ends, not just Crude? Market reaction/sentiment – The oil price correction with US easing the signals for immediate military action on Iran is only temporary and likely a wait and watch approach on how Iran and its trading partners respond to the tariffs on anyone trading with… Iran, Russia, Strait of Hormuz
- India Oil Watch #01 – Naphtha-Crude link to SG gasoline contango? by Mukesh Sahdev, Rajesh Chopra, XAnalysts Market trigger – Heavy crude production and use of light naphtha as a diluent has emerged as a key market topic that deservers a deeper dive to derive naphtha to crude signals. With higher flows of Russian naphtha… Iran, Russia
- Australia Oil watch #01- The Diesel danger? The global oil markets are an edge owing to Iran situation. The countries with significant crude buying and product buying are heavily exposed. China as biggest crude buyer has hedged itself well on crude with huge stockpiles more that 1 billion barrels or… Australia, China, India
- Venezuela Oil Watch – US naphtha backs out Russian, others? Bloomberg reported that Trafigura Readies First Venezuelan Oil Ship as Part of Mega Sale and Chevron Is Loading Venezuela Oil Onto Tankers at the Fastest Pace in Months. US Refiner P66 and Chevron Pascagoula are the likely recipients of the 1.7 million… Iran, Russia
- 12th Jan -XA Oil price bias – price ceiling and floor factors? 1. US action in Iran depends on the assurance US gets from Venezuela and US oil CEOs on how fast and to what level Venezuela production can be ramped up. That could guide the disruption US will allow from a big strike on Iran. So far, the signals are not so… China, India, Iran
- Iran oil watch – Iran is not Venezuela? Iran is on the boil and certainly a bigger deal for oil markets than Venezuela. Brent futures are climbing and touching near $64/bbl with higher risk premium vs. Venezuela situation. Iran may not have the nuclear weapon ready, but it has the fear of St. of… Iran, Russia
- Venezuela Oil Watch – US heavy bbls reshuffle? WCS discounts? The news of US investing a lot in Venezuela and getting the oil out for its own use is top of the charts. This note explores the trends and chess moves in reshuffle of heavy barrels in the US and so what for the short term markets. Heavy grades WCS linked… Russia
- Venezuela oil watch – market reaction on monday? US action in Venezuela is certainly a bigger event compared to 12 day Iran-Israel conflict. However, the market action is likely to be muted given US announced of the offensive many days ago. In some ways, it’s priced in already. What is not priced in is what… Iran, Russia
- Venezuela Oil Watch – The myth of 300 billion bbls reserves? Two charts – says it all. The Venezuela oil reserves story is hyper inflated and leading to misleading views. This note provides a view on how to look at these numbers. Also, the refinery side is a paper. 1. Assessment based on near $150/bbl price level of… Iran, US
- Venezuela oil watch – focus on US SPR? With significant events in Venezuela and US announcing to run the country till there is a right transition, the question of what happens to oil markets has gone more complex with dominant narrative US refineries will be the biggest winners and US will take… US
- China Oil Watch #02 – Shandong & Zhejiang Refining – market movers to watch by Mukesh Sahdev, Rajesh Chopra, Aman Shukla Yesterday’s note explored the big macro shifts in China oil fundamentals. https://x-analysts.com/xa-members/f/china-changed-oil-markets-in-2025-2026—any-shifts-expected Today’s note explores key data points on… Iran, Russia
- China Oil Watch #01 – How China changed oil markets in 2025. 2026 – any shifts expected? China oil fundamentals movements produced results against expectations in 2025. What about 2026? A deeper dive on historical fundamentals provides clues for moves in 2026. XA bias Given the recent geo-political tensions around Taiwan and hard US stand, China… Iran, Russia
- Venezuela oil watch -US actions erode China oil discounts US has continued to increase blockade of shipments from Venezuela. After taking control of two tankers, a third tanker is on the target. Read more here in the Bloomberg note. Important data points to note on the Venezuela situation as below. What is clear is… Iran, Russia
- Venezuela oil watch -Oil chemistry challenge In the earlier note , it was highlighted that the real reason for strong action on Venezuela by the US is to remove a source of advantaged and discounted barrels for China buyers. It’s a story of the US-Venezuela conflict and not really about US wanting full… Iran, Russia
- 16th Dec-XA Oil price bias – Bearish sentiment is one OPEC decision away Brent oil price at $61.95 per barrels is 15% lower than a year ago. Feb-26 futures contract is at $61.96/bbl followed by price touching to $60.85 /bbl by Dec-2026, indicating a very thin backwardation of $0.50/bbl in the Feb-Mar contracts. The Feb-26 contract… Strait of Hormuz, US
- Venezuela oil watch -It’s a US-China story Starting a Venezuela watch note series to track what happens next on this big oil market moving hotspot. The latest seizure of oil tanker by US heading to Iran from Venezuela is certainly adding a new twist. What to expect ahead? Watch the video narrative… Iran, Russia
- Russia Oil Watch #03- Oil market distortions with sanctions-deep dive on so what’s? Market context and trigger Sanctions on crude producers has been a tool that has been often used to limit the financial gains for certain countries like Iran and Venezuela. The same toolkit has not yielded the similar results when applied on Russia. Why? Even… Iran, Russia
- 26th Nov-XA Oil price bias – Ukraine-Russia – peace deal- Bullish? Some reports suggested Kyiv has agreed to terms of a potential peace deal. However, Ukrainian President Zelensky has said talks with US are continuing. Speculation is running high. US and Russian delegations are meeting in Abu Dhabi over the weekend to… China, India, Russia
- EU Diesel market – factors to watch towards end of 2025 and 2026. This note provides a scan of factors to watch to build a bias on EU diesel markets ahead. With some weakness visible in prompt after a strong peak (Chart 1). With Ukraine-Russia peace deal being worked, the question mark on shifts in EU flows is again… Oil products, Russia
- 19th Nov-XA Oil price bias: Drones to missiles – bullish signal to watch? Though the overall sentiment of surplus and glut in oil markets continues to top headlines, there are clearly many bullish signals to watch. This note provides a short summary of the key data points to watch w.r.t Ukraine-Russia war and XA bias.… China, India, Russia
- Russia Oil Watch #02-Russian port situation post attacks? Multiple stories shared related to Russian ports Provided XA views “The market had largely priced in a longer disruption,” said Mukesh Sahdev, founder and CEO of Xanalysts Pty. “The relatively quick restart sends a bearish signal and shows how sensitive oil… Russia
- Russia Oil Watch -Decoding Russian flows is like Matryoshka? Russian flows are becoming puzzling with new sanctions. It’s like understanding the Matryoshka – the stacked Russian dolls. Every layer reveals something interesting and new. by Mukesh Sahdev, Chief Oil Analyst. Data source : Vortexa XA bias :The sanctions… Russia
- US Oil Watch #01 -US shale math? Running on ‘treadmill’, stagnating blending play XA market bias – US crude production and exports to further erode with lack of right heavier barrels to blend XAnalysts bias is towards a further drop in US production and exports unless US resolves its imports of more heavier barrels from north and south.… Crude, Russia
- Oil price bias :Tariffs + AI – Solver for US debt problem? I attended a presentation in Sydney by Phil Mackintosh, Chief Economist – NASDAQ this morning. Sharing key takeaways and XAnalysts bias on oil markets. Key market narrative presented. Tariffs as a tool is here to stay. Even if the Supreme Court strikes some… Oil prices, Russia
- Has Hormuz recovered? The data says not yet.(test) News Brent is trading near $72 mark. The flows thru Hormuz are indeed recovering while the news of tanker attacks continues to pop-up. Bloomberg reported of an attack on LNG carrier near Oman coast resulting in fire. The headlines increasingly suggest that… Crude, Iran, Oil prices
- Crude buying China vs. India? What’s the data signaling? XA bias : Bullish for rest of the year in terms of crude buying by India and China – Trade flow data from Vortexa provides a signal that both India and China accelerated buying of Russian barrels in the first half given the high probability of disruptive… Crude, India, Iran
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