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280
insights published to date
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Prices jumped on the headlines this morning. Is supply really at risk?
Some of it is. But most of the barrels in question were already priced in. What matters now is how long the disruption lasts.
And if it lasts?
Then the question becomes which barrels are short, crude or products. That’s where we’d focus.
That changes how we plan. Can we go through the scenarios this week?
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Mukesh Sahdev, our founder and Chief Oil Analyst, comments on the oil market on TV and hosts our podcast, Xploring the Energy Markets. Before XAnalysts he was Chief Oil Analyst at Rystad Energy, after nine years at Shell. Watch our videos
CNBCCNBC -Big oil market fixes reveal an even bigger problem: AnalystTV interview, 22 Oct 2026
TV interviewNews vs. Numbers – Bab el-Mandeb escalation. Why now?. It is no longer the same chokepoint. What next?11 Sept 2026
CNBCBrent Crude Near $106/Bbl | Crude Oil Prices Above $100/Bbl Are Not SustainableTV interview, 11 Sept 2026
BBCIran sanctions may hide barrels rather than remove from the market?TV interview, 23 Aug 2026
TV interviewChina’s oil system is currently in ‘very good shape’ despite Middle East conflict: Analyst7 Aug 2026
CNBCThe risk premium is justified, but the upside is likely capped unless multiple chokepoints are simultaneously disrupted.TV interview, 18 Jul 2026
BloombergMukesh Sahdev on Hormuz, oil prices and AsiaTV interview, 14 Jul 2026
TV interviewOil supply glut narrative ‘premature’ due to overstated demand destruction: Analyst10 Jul 2026
Market briefing2027 oil paradox: Plenty of barrels, But not the right barrels7 Oct 2026
PodcastSpecial edition -XA Podcast with Rachel Ziemba – From One Hormuz to many Hormuz moments?26 Sept 2026
PodcastXA Podcast with David Wech, Chief Economist – Vortexa: The Oil Crisis is changing shape: From product panic to crude risks?14 Sept 2026
Market briefingSpecial Edition : News vs. Numbers — US economic pressure on Iran: China is the constraint, not the sanctions toolkit?25 Aug 2026
PodcastNews vs. Numbers – Argentina’s crude story is moving from production growth to market displacement in Asia?20 Aug 2026
PodcastXploring the Energy Markets Podcast – Middle East energy crisis – what changed, what did not, and why Hormuz may not return to the old normal?9 Aug 202623 TV interviews
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Alaska's production revival is gaining momentum, with output forecast to cross 500 kbd in 2027. The bigger market story is not the additional supply itself, but where these barrels will compete and at what price. As North Slope production ramps up and Asian exports increase, Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude faces growing competition from Middle Eastern and other Pacific Basin suppliers.
XA biasModestly bearish for ANS regional differentials, with limited direct impact on global Brent prices
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Serbia's only operating refinery, Pančevo (96 kbd), faces potential shutdown risk following the 6 November disruption to the JANAF crude pipeline in Croatia that is the principal route of crude supply to refinery making the refinery highly vulnerable to prolonged pipeline disruptions. Refinery has requested access to government crude and diesel reserves. Alternative crude-supply options are limited, although domestic crude, inventories and strategic reserves could temporarily support operations. A prolonged shutdown could increase Serbian diesel and gasoline imports, potentially strengthening Southeast European product premiums and disrupting domestic petrochemical feedstock supply.
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The IEA and EIA are converging on a potentially massive global liquids surplus of more than 4 million barrels per day in 2027. Yet the market's physical realities and geopolitical incentives tell a different story. The forecasts assume a substantial recovery in Middle Eastern supply, even as demand growth weakens in emerging economies and alternative supplies expand across the Americas and Russia. The contradiction is striking: a surplus of this magnitude should force inventories higher, futures into contango or prices sharply lower. Yet price expectations remain elevated, and physical markets continue to face disruptions.
On demand analysis: summary only
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