Rajesh Chopra
Chief Refinery & Petchem Analyst
29 posts by Rajesh
- Serbia's Pančevo refinery faces shutdown risk as JANAF Pipeline disruption threatens crude cupply Serbia's only operating refinery, Pančevo (96 kbd), faces potential shutdown risk following the 6 November disruption to the JANAF crude pipeline in Croatia that is the principal route of crude supply to refinery making the refinery highly vulnerable to prolonged pipeline disruptions. Refinery has requested access to government crude and diesel reserves. Alternative crude-supply options are limited, although domestic crude, inventories and strategic reserves could temporarily support operations. A prolonged shutdown could increase Serbian diesel and gasoline imports, potentially strengthening Southeast European product premiums and disrupting domestic petrochemical feedstock supply. Refining, Diesel, serbia
- Ireland's only oil refinery on the block? Strategic asset or refining margin challenge? Irving Oil is exploring the potential sale of Whitegate, Ireland's only oil refinery, with no transaction confirmed. But what exactly would a buyer be acquiring: a profitable refining asset or a strategic gateway to Ireland's fuel market? The 75 kbd hydroskimming refinery benefits from an established domestic market, marine access and fuel distribution infrastructure. However, limited upgrading capacity constrains crude flexibility and diesel yield optimization. XA View: Whitegate's strategic value may lie more in securing Ireland's fuel market than in maximizing refining margins.
- Ukraine continues its drone compagin - Five Russian refineries struck in last one week Five Russian refineries ( ~ 1.3 mbd combined capacity) were reportedly struck or damaged by Ukarinian drones between October 30 and November 5. Ukraine resumed its drone compagin against Russian refineries & energy infrastructure after a brief pause lasting about 2 weeks. Key… Russia-Ukraine Energy War
- CVR Energy acquires Marathon’s two midwest refineries - any signal to markets? CVR Energy will acquire Marathon’s St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries, alongside marketing and midstream assets, for $4.2bn plus net working capital. Closing is expected by end-2026, subject to regulatory approvals. The acquisition adds 177 kbd (St. Paul Park 105 kbd and Mandan… US refining watch
- Valero acquires LyondellBasell’s idled Houston refinery - Reversing the trend? Valero has agreed to acquire LyondellBasell’s idle Houston refinery for US$320.5 million, with plans to restart 165 kb/d (~8.25 MMTPA) of light-sweet-crude processing capacity by end-2027 and potential future investment to add more complex units capable of processing heavy sour… US refining watch
- After diesel, Russia restricts petrochemicals exports! - so what? Russia has imposed a three-month ban on November 2 on exports of selected petrochemicals outside the Eurasian Economic Union, aimed at ensuring stable feedstock supplies for domestic industries. The restrictions cover coal- and petroleum-derived benzene, toluene, orthoxylene… Petrochemicals
- Ukraine resumes strikes on Russian refineries - adding to diesel volatility? Ukraine resumed long-range drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, reportedly striking the Kstovo refinery (Nizhny Novgorod) and another Rosneft-owned refinery in the Samara region, despite reports that US had urged Ukarine to halt such attacks. Ukrainian officials rejected… Russia-Ukraine Energy War
- Saudi Ras Tanura: refinery partially impaired after strikes, but crude exports continue Ras Tanura appears to be operating at reduced or disrupted refinery rates after the October 27–28 strike reports, while crude loading activity has continued and the affected cracker type remains unconfirmed. Key findings Satellite-imagery reporting indicated significant damage… Global Refinery Outages
- India BPCL approves greenfield refinery & petrochemicals complex - structural addition by 2030? BPCL’s board approved a wholly owned subsidiary on 23 October 2026 to develop the proposed greenfield refinery and petrochemical complex at Ramayapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, subject to government and regulatory approvals. The subsidiary will have initial authorised share capital of… India Refining
- Exxon shut down catalytic reformer unit at 275 KBD Joliet refinery - adding to PADD II gasoline tightness? ExxonMobil shut down ~50kbd catalytic reformer unit at its 275 kbd Joliet refinery on October 20 following an operational issue, with reduced stack activity & elevated flaring as reported by Wood Mac. ExxonMobil said it was working to resolve the operational issue without… US Oil Refining
- US assessing options to restart closed down refineries to ease domestic supplies - whats the likelihood? US energy secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. is reviewing whether closed refineries can be restarted to help increase domestic fuel supplies and address rising diesel prices. He mentioned that administration was engaging with every refinery closed within the past decade to… US Oil Refining
- Phillips 66 Bayway refinery faces labour trouble amid already tight product markets! Phillips 66 has barred about 400 union workers at its Bayway refinery and Linden terminal in New Jersey after the labor contract extension expired on October 19. Company stated the lockout was necessary to ensure safe and reliable operations and said it will continue running the… E. Oil Refining
- Ampol Lytton refinery extends FCC turnaround to mid November - pressuring again Australia Imports? Ampol reported that its Lytton Refinery refining margin more than doubled in Q3 2026 versus a year earlier, supported by tight global fuel markets caused by geopolitical disruptions and refinery outages. However, the margin was lower than in the previous two quarters. Despite… E. Oil Refining
- Second incident within a week at Greece Motro Oil refinery raises serious questions about safety culture and reliability! Another safety incident at the Motor Oil refinery in Corinth, Greece, resulted in serious injuries to two workers. Incident involved an explosion during maintenance welding in a high pressure unit that was offline for preventive maitenance. Local Authorities are investigating… E. Oil Refining
- HPL’s phenolics project raises India’s phenol and acetone supply - pressuring SEA suppliers Adperma Private Ltd, HPL’s wholly owned subsidiary, inaugurated the ₹6,000 crore ( ~ 625 million USD) Haldia phenol–acetone complex on October 14, 2026. The inauguration report gives nameplate capacity of 345 kt of phenol and 215 kt of acetone annually. Phenol and acetone are… Petrochemicals
- Aramco Riyadh refinery attacked again by Houthis? Impact on markets? Houthis claimed to have attacked a refinery in Riyadh in addition to attacks on Riyadh airport & Aramco HQ in Dhahran on 14th Oct. The group did not specify timing or damage details. The confrontation marks an escalation in the conflict between Houthis and Saudi Arabia. No… Refinery Outages
- Greece Motor Oil Refinery incident causes two fatalities - Impact on markets? Two workers died following an accident at the Motor Oil refinery near Athens, one immediately and another later from critical head injuries. Local media reported an explosion during preventive maintenance operations as the cause. Motor Oil stated it is fully cooperating with the… E. Oil Refining
- Crude and Diesel prices correct but slower than expected Oil prices are in correction mode while still staying well above $100/bbl mark. US heating oil (Diesel) are also in correction mode. Prices are staying elevated on few counts Escalation in Middle East continue. US has given marginal hints to join and support Saudi Arabia.… A. Prices
- SATORP refinery capacity restored ahead of forecasts - positive news for products? TotalEnergies confirmed that SATORP refinery in Saudi Arabia has regained 100% operational capacity after April’s drone strikes, that reduced operation to 70%. The recovery was completed earlier than initial forecast that repairs might extend beyond the end of 2026. The… E. Oil Refining
- Isaias spares Gulf Refineries but shuts In 1.5 mb/d of Offshore Crude Hurricane Isaias largely spared US Gulf Coast refineries after tracking east, while offshore shut-ins reached ~1.5 mb/d of crude production. Key findings Initial estimates put roughly 500 kb/d of refining capacity at risk, while XA assessed ~2.7 mb/d within the projected… US refining watch
- Saudis’ Ability to Supply Energy Is Resilient, Minister Says - Bloomberg As per Bloomberg - Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline last month, with flows rising to over 80% of the link’s capacity. Meanwhile, state-run Saudi Aramco has boosted crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing total oil exports toward prewar levels in… OPEC+ & Crude Production
- India Diesel exports - off the chart India Diesel exports are at all time high touching a level above 1.1 mbd. India Diesel exports are mostly going to Africa and Europe. Why is US not buying India Diesel? Diesel
- Hurricane Isaias threatens gulf coast refining, raising pressure on product markets! Hurricane Isaias (75 mph winds) is approaching the Gulf Coast, threatening Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Offshore oil output: ~512,000 bpd shut in (~25% of Gulf production); 16% of gas output curtailed; 8 platforms and 2 rigs evacuated. Refineries… US Oil Refining
- Ukraine continues to strikes Russian refineries ignoring US? Gazprom Selavat Refinery attacked Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan was hit by Ukrainian drones in an overnight attack on 8th Oct. Eyewitness photos and Astra confirmed a fire near the facility. The refinery processes ~10 million tonnes of feedstock annually ( ~ 200 KBD), producing 150+… Russia-Ukraine Energy War
- Second Russian Refinery struck within a day - Ukraine drones hit Omsk Refinery In Siberia Ukrainian drones struck Omsk Oil Refinery on October 8, 2026, located ~2,500 km from Ukraine. Omsk is Russia’s largest refinery, with an annual crude processing capacity of >21 million tonnes (~420 KBD). The plant produces a wide range of fuels, lubricants, and petrochemical… Russia-Ukraine Energy War
- EIA Refinery runs outlook is much higher than earlier estimates EIA Refinery runs outlook is much higher than earlier estimates. US refining watch
- What is moving Diesel cracks? US most resilient, NWE middle, Singapore weakest ? G7 coordinated release of 100 mb of strategic reserves, front-loaded with a diesel tranche landing within 20 days. There is correction in the cracks. NWE- ICE Gasoil ~ $72.95/bbl (Nov 26) , down $5.6/bbl US - Heating oil ~ $94.45/bbl (Nov 26), down $1.86/bbl w/w SG GO … Refining & Products
- Aramco's Petro Rabigh Refinery attacked by Houthis? More pain ahead for Diesel? Houthi military spokesperson claimed to have attacked Armaco's Petro Rabigh Refinery. The attack reportely caused a fire at the refinery, though there is no independent verification of these claims. Saudi Authorities, Aramco or Petro Rabigh have not confirmed any strikes or… Refinery Outages
- 310 kbd Venezuela Refinery halted with a diesel unit impacted. It was already running low. Cardón is currently reported shut down following a fire on 6 October. Reuters reports that a gas line connected to/passing through the diesel hydrotreater area ruptured or opened, causing a fire and some explosions. Was operating well below its capacity of 310 kbd. One part of… Refinery Outages