Mukesh Sahdev
54 posts by Mukesh
- Alaska's crude comeback: More North Slope barrels, tougher Pacific competition? Alaska's production revival is gaining momentum, with output forecast to cross 500 kbd in 2027. The bigger market story is not the additional supply itself, but where these barrels will compete and at what price. As North Slope production ramps up and Asian exports increase, Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude faces growing competition from Middle Eastern and other Pacific Basin suppliers. XA's bias: Modestly bearish for ANS regional differentials, with limited direct impact on global Brent prices.
- Oil's 4+ million barrels per day surplus paradox for 2027: What EIA vs. IEA projections could be missing? The IEA and EIA are converging on a potentially massive global liquids surplus of more than 4 million barrels per day in 2027. Yet the market's physical realities and geopolitical incentives tell a different story. The forecasts assume a substantial recovery in Middle Eastern supply, even as demand growth weakens in emerging economies and alternative supplies expand across the Americas and Russia. The contradiction is striking: a surplus of this magnitude should force inventories higher, futures into contango or prices sharply lower. Yet price expectations remain elevated, and physical markets continue to face disruptions. Oil Macro
- XA comment on the FT note - Russian diesel exports double after Trump lifts sanctions, but US gets none The XA comment differentiates the loadings vs. arrivals and provides a contrary market view. Oct-26 loadings of Russian Diesel are indeed higher w.r.t Sep-26. The arrivals are not. Diesel
- Higher diesel flows, weakening cracks - what next? Is the sell off over done? Diesel markets are undergoing a sharp correction as geopolitical risk premiums unwind, global exports rise and refining margins retreat to 60-day lows. Yet the physical market tells a more complicated story. Winter backwardation remains significant, Singapore inventories have fallen to a nine-week low, and renewed attacks on Russian refineries threaten supply reliability. Higher US refinery yields and Asian exports offer near-term relief, but may not eliminate the underlying vulnerability. Has diesel been oversold, or is the market finally adjusting to improving fundamentals? XA sees a potential buying opportunity in the correction, with Chinese export flows, Russian refinery outages and the approaching US spring supply dip determining the next move. Diesel
- Brent below $90: Correction in price, not in crisis? Brent's 19.2% correction signals a retreat in geopolitical fear, not necessarily a recovery in physical oil supply. The market is unwinding the immediate Iran-escalation premium, helped by easing freight costs, Saudi export rerouting and expectations of emergency stock support. Yet Hormuz crossings and loadings remain volatile, inventories are tight, and the forward curves remain backwardated despite weakening. XA's contrarian call: The correction may be temporary, while the Gulf crisis could prove prolonged. We maintain a bullish bias for Brent to recover and sustain levels above $90/bbl through the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027. The key market signal is not the headlines, but whether physical flows recover sustainably. The bigger question: Is the market pricing the end of the crisis, while the physical data are pointing to its continuation?
- Global LNG loadings are back to pre-war levels. But is global LNG supply security really back? US exports are filling the supply gap, while Qatar's LNG faces a widening disconnect between loadings, Hormuz crossings and actual deliveries. With winter demand building, China's buying appetite and US export growth could determine whether LNG prices spike or stabilize. The real question: Is LNG supply recovering, or is the market simply finding new ways to manage disruption? LNG
- Hormuz loadings and crossings on decline after an end Oct peak West of Hormuz weekly crude and products loadings are in a declining trajectory after a peak in end-Oct. There are more attacks being reported. What is crossing the Straight is even much below prior week in the latest 2-8 Nov data. Ship to Ship transfers are also in declining… Trade Flows
- Latest Saudi East-West pipeline attack need not be considered bullish? Attack on the pipeline in western Medina region and small fire is reported on Monday. The pipeline operations reported as unaffected. The loadings from Yanbu have been trending lower owing to earlier attacks. The loading in weeks ahead is also projected much lower. Mostly what… East-West Saudi Pipeline
- Getting more Ships on water ? Allowing purchase of U.S. sanctioned ships by major trading companies is likely to bring further pressure on freight rates. Freight
- Oil falls for a fourth day on expectations for lower risk of Iran war escalation. Sell off is short lived. Oil prices fell for a fourth day on Thursday on expectations the losses US President Donald Trump's Republican Party suffered in Congressional elections this week may reduce the risk of further escalation of the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent futures LCOc1 fell 97 cents, or 1.03%… Prices
- India – addition of 650 kbd refining capacity. Impact in 2028 vs. 2027. India has multiple capacity expansions targeted for 2027 HPCL Rajasthan - Target to reach full utilization by year end/early 2027. IOCL Panipat - 200 kbd addition targeted by March 2027 IOCL Gujarat - 90 kbd addition targeted by March 2027 IOCL Barauni - 60 kbd addition targeted… Refining
- IEA ‘ready to act again’ if necessary following oil stock release: Birol Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency speaks to CNBC’s Dan Murphy, saying the agency is ready to act again to support markets following its release of oil stocks, and is assessing and discussing the next “concrete steps” with member governments. Stocks
- Gulf’s worst oil shock will leave lasting scars, says IMF GCC GDP to contract by 4.8% in 2026 Qatar, Kuwait worst hit. Only Oman projected to grow at 4.1%. Macro
- China likely to continue exports - Argus China export quota - million tons 2022 -37, 2023- 41,2024-41,202025-40.5, 2026 - expected ~ 36.55 A new refinery is starting in recent days. Refined Products
- Refinery outages - Oct 6 mbd maintenance - Argus Oct -26 - 6 mbd Nov -26- 4 mbd Refinery Outages
- Projects for storage - Vietnam and Philippines Vietnam - PVN started a study with Russia reserve development options Philippines - 33 m$ in storage projects being discussed. Stocks
- Tanker market systemic shock continues with attacks in Hormuz Iranian attacks have reached tankers off Oman, at least 10 empty VLCCs and several Supermaxes bound for Fujairah have stopped or turned back. All key routes for dirty tankers are at 60 day highs. VLCC rates are up ~195% month-on-month (TD3c/TD22 $228.73/mt vs a 60-day low of… Freight
- Why crude oil prices may remain near $100 despite changing geopolitical risks Crude oil is expected to stay near $100/bbl before US elections due to high freight costs, shipping issues, and refining limits, but a future supply surplus could drop prices to the $80/bbl range after 2026, according to X-Analysts' Mukesh Sahdev A. Prices
- US exemption for diesel unlikely to have a big price impact - Rachel Ziemba OFAC has issued a SIX month exemption to the US sanctions to allow the import of Russian diesel into the US and similar exemption to restrictions on selling it to other countries. Diesel
- US Targets Iran’s Shadow Fleet in October Oil-Sanctions Action US measures announced on October 8–9 targeted vessels and international networks supporting Iranian petroleum trade, raising export-logistics pressure but leaving the physical supply impact unquantified. Key findings The October 8 action targeted 17 vessels under Operation… US -Iran - China sanctions
- China’s early-October product exports shift away from jet and diesel Observed exports in October 1–9 show lower jet/kero and diesel/gasoil rates than September, alongside higher gasoline/blending-component and other-clean-product rates, consistent with a temporary Golden Week disruption rather than a broad shutdown. Key findings Diesel/gasoil… China refining & petrochemical
- Saudis in Talks to Formalize Hormuz Shuttles in Fight for Market Changes in Saudi long term contracts coming. The main mode for flows - Deliver crude outside Hormuz for buyers to pick-up. This is the 'shuttle trade'. Possible options choice of pricing benchmarks-price long-term, contractual purchases against Brent futures instead of the Dubai… Crude
- G7 Accelerates Up to 100 Million-Barrel Emergency Fuel Stock Release The G7’s accelerated release of up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel stocks is near-term bearish for refined products, but its effectiveness depends on underlying supply disruptions easing. Key findings The G7 will release up to 100 million barrels of… XA Briefs
- 2027 oil paradox: Plenty of barrels, But not the right barrels EIA Brent price outlook is increased for Q4 to $105/bbl and also for 2027. Is this just a curve lift?. The next leg of oil crisis may not begin at the wellhead. The Hormuz shock has exposed a deeper fracture in the global oil system—between the well and the…
- What is Red Diesel? Why is this being allowed for on-road usage? No new barrel. Dyed, tax-exempt diesel intended for off-road/non-highway uses Essentially the same ULSD used on highways—generally less than≤15 ppm sulfur—but red dye is added so tax authorities can identify fuel on which highway excise tax has not been paid. It is illegal to use dyed diesel… Refining & Products
- OPEC quota unchanged, so what for Dubai barrels? OPEC+ confirmed November quotas unchanged at Sunday's meeting — Saudi Arabia stays at 10.5mb/d. 2027 capacity review has been delayed to mid-November because members haven't submitted data Dubai
- With Red Sea staying blocked for Saudi, flows of Arab Light being maximized from Persian Gulf and Yanbu Several explosions reported in close proximity to an oil tanker -south of the Yemeni city of Al Mukha. East-West Saudi Pipeline
- OPEC+ qouta unchanged, refined products recovery from the Middle East - What is the connection? As of October 5, 2026, crude exports excluding Iran had moved above their pre-war weekly average, helped by the Saudi East–West pipeline, UAE bypass capacity and tanker-transfer workarounds. That does not mean the refined-product system has normalized: The latest completed… Diesel market
- Fears of disruption to keep Brent futures elevated near 100 despite G7 announced release of 100 million barrels of oil Dated Brent is above $115/bbl and Brent futures for Dec delivery rose to $103/bbl on early Monday Oil Price Views
- India crude arrivals via Hormuz touch pre-war levels in latest weekly data Change in tactic - pick-up crude vs. asking for delivery given hefty discounts like Iraq SOMO offered $37/bbl. Govt advisory softened on risk of picking up cargoes. India Oil Watch
- Australia -face gas shortages as gas preservation policy may imapct investments More investment needed to avoid domestic shortfall on east coast. Approved domestic gas reservation scheme that will require producers to set aside a fifth of new production. LNG, LNG & Natural Gas, Australia
- Yanbu crude loadings resume with nearly 5mb loaded on Sep 26; preliminary data suggests most volumes head west of Suez East-West Saudi Pipeline
- 5% boost in earning for commodities for Australia owing to the Middle East crisis Australia export earning in 2026-27 Iron ore - A$107 billion . Benchmark prices for Australia’s biggest export, iron ore, have remained near $100/ton This is 50% higher than earning from LNG, 50% higher than Gold, 50% higher than coal. Lithium is still 15% of Iron ore. Non-Oil commodities, Gas/LNG, Other Commodities
- Chinese refiners suspend Oct fuel exports, PetroChina cancels cargoes Major PetroChina, opens new tab cancelled on Wednesday the majority of its gasoline and jet fuel shipments planned for October Important to note the news mentions Jet and gasoline shipments - not Diesel. Oil Refining
- The Diesel paradox: More crude won’t solve the Diesel squeeze China and the US—the two refining systems capable of materially changing the global balance—are increasingly prioritizing domestic fuel security. Dangote helps, but it is not yet large enough on diesel to replace that lost swing capacity. Insights Dots to…
- 40 million barrels SPR release US DOE - Request for proposals (RFP) to exchange up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Bids due 6 Oct 2026. Earlier rounds awarded 133 million barrels. With this release, it would complete the 172 million barrels commitment as part of… Crude
- Texas emergency declaration on Diesel likely to have opposite price effect? Texas avg Diesel prices are $5.84/gallon now vs. $3/gallon in Feb-26. Texas Gov. declared a statewide disaster on Monday over soaring diesel prices. This allows lifting some restrictions on commercial transportation to use the Dyed Diesel (Red dye added to show it is untaxed… Diesel market
- XA i-Dot: Brazil – the next oil market hotspot to watch? Brazil is long crude, but short Diesel with high US dependence. Brazil is becoming the swing barrel between the Atlantic and Asia — not because it produces the cheapest crude, but because its barrels increasingly have the right quality, geography and routing optionality.Brazil is emerging as the oil market’s two-way swing…
- ADNOC - State giant plans to build 4 million tpa liquefaction facility in Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman State-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has selected three contractors or consortia to carry out a design competition for a new liquefied natural gas export facility bypassing any future disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. 2025 = 4.83 million metric tons total exports… LNG
- US LNG exports on track to top 120 million tonnes in 2026, Energy Secretary says 2025 - 100 mt of LNG exported by US (Vortexa Data - 75 mt) 2026 - Projected to export 120 mt ( at this rate 85 mt) New projects Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi LNG project in Texas Concerns by some politicians Growth in LNG exports… LNG
- Qatar Says It's Ready to Resume LNG Operations Within Weeks of Hormuz Reopening Qatar Says It's Ready to Resume LNG Operations Within Weeks of Hormuz Reopening Qatar, one of the world's top three LNG exporters before the Iran war, halted production earlier this year following attacks on its export hub and after the near-closure of the Hormuz strait. LNG… LNG
- US Diesel export ban gaining momentum? China and U.S. refinery yields of Diesel is lower than what it used to be. Exporting Diesel from the Gulf coast is what kept Gasoline prices lower. There is an important connection in these dynamics which is not being talked about. Diesel
- Saudi Arabia Running Tests to Resume East-West Oil Pipeline - Bloomberg 1. Early stages to restore flows - later this week. 2. Signs of tankers arriving at Yanbu 3. Saudi Aramco had told 2 EU refineries - not able to give allocated Oct barrels. 4. Asia - flows resumed via Hormuz. Key to watch - if Arab Medium loads means Jizan is also starting East-West Pipeline
- VLCC rates hit record highs, driven by mainstream crude liftings to Asia - Vortexa • Middle East Gulf VLCC freight rates soar to record highs as Asia switches from high-risk to mainstream crude supplies • Saudi Arabia shift liftings towards MEG due to closure of East-West pipeline and Red Sea attacks, reducing intra-country flows • Halt in Yanbu crude loadings… Freight
- Xi-Trump talks bullish for WTI Beijing has now officially confirmed Xi Jinping’s U.S. state visit for September 23–25, at Trump’s invitation. That moves the unresolved trade package—including possible lower tariffs on “non-sensitive” goods such as energy—from the Bessent–He negotiating channel to the leaders’… Geopolitics
- CRUDE OIL - Likely Position Trimming is the reason for the drop - Brian Pieri Crude gapped down. WTI is 93.39, off roughly 7 percent from Friday's settle near 100, with Brent at 101. Heating oil is 4.89, RBOB is 3.45 and Henry Hub is 2.838, leaning on the 2.80 floor. The screen is pricing peace. Friday's COT shows a crowded long: managed money is net long… Crude
- Libya flows restored to Refinery Oil flows from Libya’s western fields to the 120,000 b/d Zawiya refinery have resumed after a brief disruption by petroleum guards protesting pay conditions. - MEES Crude
- XA i-Dot | The Russia sanctions bill is not just about Russia — it creates a new oil-flow optionality risk Washington has just created one of its most powerful tools yet to pressure Russia — but the bigger oil-market question is whether it will actually use it . The new sanctions bill goes beyond targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, banks and energy network. It gives…
- Russia’s Ryazan refinery shutdown after repeat attacks: raising pressure on already heated diesel markets? Russia’s Ryazan refinery shutdown raises concerns over diesel markets amid ongoing supply pressures and geopolitical tensions. Refinery stopped crude processing after recent drone attacks and staring at multi-week supply loss. Market news reported shutdown of…
- Iran oil watch – Iran is not Venezuela? Iran is on the boil and certainly a bigger deal for oil markets than Venezuela. Brent futures are climbing and touching near $64/bbl with higher risk premium vs. Venezuela situation. Iran may not have the nuclear weapon ready, but it has the fear of St. of… Iran, Russia
- China Oil Watch #02 – Shandong & Zhejiang Refining – market movers to watch by Mukesh Sahdev, Rajesh Chopra, Aman Shukla Yesterday’s note explored the big macro shifts in China oil fundamentals. https://x-analysts.com/xa-members/f/china-changed-oil-markets-in-2025-2026—any-shifts-expected Today’s note explores key data points on… Iran, Russia
- Venezuela oil watch -It’s a US-China story Starting a Venezuela watch note series to track what happens next on this big oil market moving hotspot. The latest seizure of oil tanker by US heading to Iran from Venezuela is certainly adding a new twist. What to expect ahead? Watch the video narrative… Iran, Russia
- Oil price bias :Tariffs + AI – Solver for US debt problem? I attended a presentation in Sydney by Phil Mackintosh, Chief Economist – NASDAQ this morning. Sharing key takeaways and XAnalysts bias on oil markets. Key market narrative presented. Tariffs as a tool is here to stay. Even if the Supreme Court strikes some… Oil prices, Russia
- Crude buying China vs. India? What’s the data signaling? XA bias : Bullish for rest of the year in terms of crude buying by India and China – Trade flow data from Vortexa provides a signal that both India and China accelerated buying of Russian barrels in the first half given the high probability of disruptive… Crude, India, Iran