Manan Karnik
6 posts by Manan
- Canada Oil market – challenges, trends and outlook – Long crude, Short optionality? Canada has spent decades asking how to get its oil to market. The more important question after TMX may be how long its new export optionality lasts. Production is growing, Pacific access has increased and Canadian producers have greater ability to challenge…
- Texas Tyler Refinery expansion does not yet establish a near-term Diesel supply response? Texas Tyler refinery should be viewed as a small, relatively sophisticated refinery whose advantage is domestic/light-crude access and East Texas market proximity—not as a flexible heavy-crude processor or a refinery that can readily pivot into substantially…
- Diesel grabs the headlines, but crude holds the bigger market signal? The market is trying to solve a diesel shortage through diplomacy and refinery recovery, while crude disruptions and tanker risks continue to undermine the solution. The bigger question is no longer whether Russia can sell diesel to the US. It is whether…
- Russia’s diesel may never reach the US. Its price impact could? The emerging diesel correction may not come from direct Russian supplies to the US or Europe’s strategic stock releases. It may come from a global reshuffling of trade flows. Rising Russian diesel exports could displace US barrels in Latin America, while…
- Saudi grade optimization game – Arab Light vs. Arab Medium? What is the signal for Hormuz? Arab Medium is the more exposed grade: the deeper OSP cut into Asia (-$5/bbl vs -$3/bbl for Arab Light), the larger d/d FOB move, and the weaker medium sour cracking margins all point to Arab Medium facing more pricing pressure. The $1/bbl quality premium…
- Is Diesel supply getting delayed -less now, more past Nov? A significant diesel price correction during October looks increasingly difficult. The physical relief mechanisms are real—but mostly delayed. Europe is reluctant to exhaust winter stocks; Russian diesel remains constrained; and additional crude and heavy…